Chamber heads optimistic as retail sector reopens, say vaccinations are key to success

THERE was optimism in the business community ahead of Monday's re-opening of the retail sector, which has been closed over the last three months owing to increasing covid19 cases in Trinidad and Tobago and public health and state of emergency (SoE) restrictions that were implemented to curb those cases.

While the expectation is for a slow start to business in the retail sector, there is hope that once as many members of the sector are vaccinated against covid19, the sector can once again begin to contribute to strengthening the economy. TT Chamber of Industry and Commerce Gabriel Faria, Greater San Fernando Chamber of Commerce Kiran Singh and Confederation of Regional Business Chambers co-ordinator Jai Leladarsingh expresed these views on Sunday.

At a news conference at the Diplomatic Centre on Saturday, the Prime Minister said plans for the reopening of the retail sector on Monday would proceed as planned. Dr Rowley said the reopening of the retail sector "will be a big, big step."

Faria said the retail sector consists of thousands of businesses that employ tens of thousands of employees. He also said there are hundreds of large retailers operating in the formal part of the sector and thousands in the informal part.

"Due to the closure of the sector over the past roughly three months there will be pent up demand for certain items. This should create an initial sales lift in some areas such as appliances or household items which need to be repaired or replaced and clothes for work or school."

Faria said many people who are self-employed, have their own businesses or work in the private sector may have seen their incomes decline in over the last 17-plus months, compared to those employed in the public sector.

"Many have resorted to utilising their savings to meet their living expenses."

With the costs of many items increasing over the course of the pandemic owing to increases in the costs of raw materials and logistics, Faria said, "Most people have directed the limited funds they have available to basic food and pharma purchases."

With people being uncertain when or if things will return to some level of normalcy, Faria said people are trying to put aside whatever money they can and based on that, "It's estimated that aggregate demand will be lower than it was pre-pandemic and there will be less discretional spending."

Faria: Delta's arrival changes things

Faria said the recording of the first two cases of the covid19 delta variant in TT has changed the dynamics again.

The Ministry of Health announced a third case of the delta variant in TT on Sunday.

Faria said, given the data showing this variant to be far more transmissible than covid19, Faria said this means" the previous levels of vaccinations estimated to achieve herd immunity are not applicable anymore."

With evidence from around the world showing that vaccinated people are less likely to get sick from covid19 compared to unvaccinated people, Faria said vaccinated people are also less likely to spread covid19.

"Locally, employers have been providing access to medical advice and information to encourage vaccination. We are seeing vaccination levels as high as 95 per cent in some areas and as low as 20 per cent in others."

Faria said the Government had done its part to provide the public with access to World Health Organization (WHO)-approved vaccines and has additional vaccine supplies coming in. But he added, "We need more people to get vaccinated or we run the risk another wave of infections and further lockdowns instead of reopening of additional sectors."

Faria said, "No one sector can support our economy. We need all our sectors open to effectively restart our economy."

Singh said, "The retail sector is a significant employer, accounting for a near 80,000 workforce and contributing over 12 per cent to the nation's GDP on an annual basis."

He did not anticipate large crowds and significant charges as the sector reopens.

"Citizens are still reeling from the extended lockdown, salary cuts and layoffs so it is unlikely that retail activity will peak anytime soon." Singh was hopeful "that as we get closer to the Christmas shopping season, commercial activity increase."

Singh was confident with more people being vaccinated daily, "things can begin to return to some semblance of normalcy." He reiterated, "This is the only way out of this pandemic. The faster we reach herd immunity, the faster we can get our lives and livelihoods back on track."

With retail workers feeling more comfortable about coming back to work and customers feeling safer about coming out to shop, Singh said, "We need to keep the retail sector running."

He added that when the sector is closed "it creates a negative multiplier effect on the entire economy, which we experienced in the past few weeks where the food and manufacturing sectors were reopened but retail remained closed."

Leladarsingh said, "The outlook is for a seamless reopening. The owners will ensure its customers will observe the 3W's and will be able to restock."

He also believed there may be a slow start to the sector's reopening.

But Leladarsingh said, "Depending on the levels of disposable income being attained by working people in the near future, we can see sales picking up." He said, "Vaccinations represent an important step and a vital necessity for people going back to the workplace."

Leladarsingh added, " The vaccination is our only defence against the covid19 pandemic.

In a statement on August 11, the Trade and Industry Ministry said as at 2019, the Centralk Statistical Office reported that the sector comprised approximately 8,656 business establishments, contributing an estimated 13 per cent or approximately $20.3 billion annually to GDPO and employs over 78,000 people."