Americans to decide on leader

Most general elections barely register in the collective consciousness of global society. But on Tuesday, the world will be watching, waiting and anticipating as the United States goes to the polls to determine its next president.

The race is between the incumbent Republican nominee Donald Trump, known for his flashy, divisive and bombastic rhetoric of “America first” and the considerably less ostentatious Joe Biden – a Democrat who served for eight years as President Barack Obama’s second in command from 2008 to 2016 and whose campaign hinges on the “battle for the soul of the nation.”

For the rest of the world, the election could determine how America is viewed as the ideological leader of global geopolitics. America’s foreign policy over the last four years has in some ways alienated several allies, especially in Europe and Trump’s administration has escalated a trade war with China.

Closer to home, the US has taken a hard stance against an “unlawful” Venezuelan administration led by Nicolas Maduro, throwing its support behind his political opponent – president of the National Assembly Juan Guaido – sometimes with the Caribbean caught in the middle.

Already, voter turnout has been staggering – over 96 million Americans have participated in early voting, representing almost 75 per cent of the total number voting in 2016.

Key issues on the ballot are immigration, systemic racism, the economy and the environment – policies that have defined the last four years of the Trump presidency. These have all now been compounded by covid19 and the impact on American society. Out of the 46.6 million reported covid19 cases in the world, the US has the highest rate of infection (9.3 million) and the highest death rate (231,000 out of 1.2 million reported in total). Even Trump, First Lady Melania and at least 36 White House staff contracted the virus.

For the Caribbean, the United States is one of its closest, biggest and most strategic ally.

In financial year 2020, the US allocated US$1.7 billion in aid to Latin America and the Caribbean region. (TT’s direct allocation was US$300,000 although USAID Caribbean Development was allocated US$10 million).

The Caribbean diaspora is also estimated to be 4.4 million strong, according to a report from the Migration Policy Institute using 2017 data from the US Census Bureau. The majority comes from Cuba and the Dominican Republic, but 23.5 per cent or just over one million come from Jamaica (745,000), Trinidad and Tobago (235,000) and Barbados (56,000).

Caribbean caught in the middle

It’s no surprise, then, that the Caribbean has been keeping a keen eye on the outcome of the US election. Among them, said international relations scholar Dr Anthony Gonzales, is an emerging “cold war” between the US and China. Within that war is a battle for Caribbean influence.

China has made significant inroads in the Caribbean over the last two decade or so, and America has begun to push back. Gonzales notes, for example, the US attempts to prevent Jamaica from using Chinese tech company Huawei as its partner to install a 5G network on the island.

“The US is threatening some of the Caribbean countries not to deal with China, at least on some strategic items… I’m not sure if Biden succeeds if that might change, but he might come to some accommodation with China,” Gonzales said.

Venezuela remains a contentious issue and Gonzales noted that the region was not entirely comfortable with the way the US has handled the situation. He said, whatever happens it’s important that the Caribbean remains considered a zone of peace as it continues to advocate for a negotiated settlement to its political crisis and not something more forceful.

The Trump administration has also taken a tougher stance on immigration.

“Historically, the Caribbean has gotten access for migrants and it might be uncomfortable (if the US closes) that immigration door. We might feel more at home with Biden than with Trump.”

Racism and white supremacy is also a cause for concern among potential immigrants as well as the Diaspora – and something that Trump has emboldened.

“We nationals who live (in the US) have a historical relationship with the US and Black America so this is not something we want to see in this part of the world.”

There’s also climate change, where several Trump administration policies have reversed or weakened protections for the environment. On Wednesday, one day after the election and three years after Trump announced it – the US is set to leave the Paris Accord – a global commitment to slow global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius in a bid to mitigate sea level rise. This is especially important to small island developing states like those in the Caribbean.

Trade will continue

Gonzales noted that while the region tends to align itself more closely with Democratic candidates, it has done well under Republican presidents as well. The Caribbean Basin Initiative – a trade agreement that allows for goods produced in TT and other Caricom countries to have duty-free access to the US market, was first started under President Ronald Regan in the 1980s and extended for another ten years last month by Trump.

CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham) Nirad Tewarie, also noted that the current administration put in place a number of programmes under the Growth in the Americas/Americas Crece initiative to focus on economic relations in the hemisphere.

The programme was championed by new IDB president Mauricio Claver-Carone, so, Tewarie said, it will be interesting to see if a change in administration will affect the development bank given the presidency is now held by what is essentially a political candidate.

A new president might also mean more room to collaborate on other contentious issues in the hemisphere, for example, relations in the Organisation of American States around Venezuela and Nicaragua.

“I don’t expect policies to shift much. The approach might be a little different but who knows. Other than that, whether it’s Democrats or Republicans, as it related to issues around bilateral trade and national security, we have historically had very good and deep relations with the US government regardless of which party is in power,” Tewarie said.

What would be interesting is what happens in the Senate race. The Senate is currently skewed to the Republicans while the House of Representatives is Democratic. If the Senate shifts Democratic, then the legislative edge goes to the Democrats who will have control of both houses of Congress.

“This can affect the outlook on trade generally depending on composition of the Senate and things like energy – even though the petroleum market is under pressure, any changes that might affect US shale production will have to be monitored if it could be a positive or negative for us.”

Regardless of who’s in power, Tewarie said he expected relations with the US to be strong and Amcham will continue to lobby for investment and joint ventures between TT and the US.