Analyst: PNM appears to be ahead in THA race

The battle for the Tobago House of Assembly (THA) is expected to intensify this week, ahead of the January 25 election.

And the People’s National Movement (PNM) may be forced to continue defending itself in relation to a stalled zipline project, which was initiated under the former Orville London-led THA in 2015.

The controversial issue dominated last week’s campaign.

PDP deputy leader Farley Augustine raised the issue on January 10 at the party’s drive-in meeting in Scarborough.

Augustine, who is seeking to retain the Speyside/Parlatuvier/L’Anse Fourmi seat, produced a copy of an Auditor General Department’s management letter to the THA for the period ended September 2016.

The letter, dated November 12, was sent to the Chief Administrator Bernadette Solomon-Koroma.

Augustine, who is leading the PDP’s campaign for the THA, said the 48-page letter highlighted several financial discrepancies in the operations of the THA.

Singling out the stalled zipline project, Augustine said PNM Tobago Council leader Tracy Davidson-Celestine has questions to answer.

She was the secretary of tourism and transportation at the time the project was announced.

Davidson-Celestine, who is contesting the Lambeau/Signal Hill seat, has denied any wrongdoing in project.

She said when she demitted office to take up the appointment as TT’s ambassador to Costa Rica, the project had barely gotten off the ground.

Davidson-Celestine also told a meeting at the Milford Park, Bon Accord, on Wednesday, the management letter did not point to financial impropriety on the part of any member of the THA.

She told supporters: “A management letter is only a document indicating you have $5 spent over here…Send me the documentation because in going through the systems, I did not pick up the documentation.

“It does not indicate there was anything untoward in terms of any politicians’ wrongdoing.”

On Friday, Davidson-Celestine was confident the Auditor’s General’s 2016 report will not affect the PNM’s chances at the polls.

“In perusing the Auditor General’s report, there is no mention of anything untoward in the document,” she told Sunday Newsday.

She noted there is a difference between a management letter and the actual report.

Davidson-Celestine recalled the Tobago Organisation of the People had tried to use a report to attack the PNM in the run up to the 2013 THA election.

“That is an old trick and it didn’t work. They can’t fool the people of Tobago with sensational fabrication.”

Davidson-Celestine said the PNM’s campaign has been progressing very well.

“It has been a long session for us and we look forward to the culmination on January 25.”

She said over the years, the party has made significant investments in education, infrastructure development, expanding agricultural and small-medium businesses across the island.

“We are very proud of our efforts and we are now poised to take Tobago to the next level.”

Davidson-Celestine said apart from the expansion of the ANR Robinson airport, the party also intends to distribute 2,000 lots of land for home construction and continue with the long-awaited Bacolet indoor sports complex.

“We are very focused on our message and would not allow the detractors to derail our focus. We are very confident as a team going forward.”

Davidson-Celestine said the PNM is also “buoyed in spirit by the findings of all our polls and the information and embrace the welcome that we have been receiving on the ground.”

As it did in the 2013 THA election, when it won all 12 seats in the Assembly, under then chief secretary Orville London, the PNM is again pushing for a clean sweep.

The party currently controls ten of the 12 seats.

If the PNM wins the election, Davidson-Celestine will again create history by becoming the first female chief secretary in the THA’s 40-year history.

She became the Tobago Council’s first female leader after her victory over Kelvin Charles in the leadership run-off election on June 26, 2020.

Charles, who represented the Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden seat, is a former chief sectary and the outgoing Secretary for Education, Innovation and Energy. He has not sought re-election.

Much of the PNM’s campaign, so far, has focussed on its plans for the next four years.

Apart from the ANR Robinson airport expansion project, the party has also placed autonomy, agriculture, business entrepreneurship and initiatives to attract direct foreign investment at the top of its agenda.

The establishment of a cargo port

But its main opponent, the PDP, is attempting to end the PNM’s unbroken 20-year reign in the THA.

The party, which is contesting all 12 seats, is campaigning on a platform of “putting people first.”

The PDP also intends to focus on developing the island’s tourism and agricultural sector and facilitating employment opportunities for young people.

No breaches of code of conduct

With just one week to go before the election, political analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath said the election appears to be a two-party race with the PNM “seemingly ahead.”

However, he is uncertain as to the extent to which the PDP’s revelations about alleged corruption in the zipline project among other issues, arising out of the Auditor General’s management letter, can impact the PNM’s bid to retain office.

“People are concerned but I am not sure how much concern is being looked at as to whether, under the PNM-controlled THA, there has been some degree of wastage and slippage of monitoring how monies were being spent.

“I am not sure how much that has resonated with the citizenry, which I think is what the PDP is campaigning on.”

Ragoonath also could not make any pronouncement about Dr Denise Tsoiafatt-Angus’ chances of winning the Scarborough/Calder Hall seat as an independent candidate.

Tsoiafatt-Angus was expelled from the PNM after she decided to contest the seat. The party’s screening committee selected incumbent Marslyn Melville-Jack ahead of Tsoiafatt-Angus.

Ragoonath said he needed to do some further analysis of the electoral data for the area.

“Literally, we have to look and see what percentage of the population has voted for the PNM and will continue to vote for the PNM.”

He added: “We know the PNM is strong in the area and Dr Angus has given the PNM a challenge, whether or not that would mean PNM votes being split and allowing a third party or the PDP to come in and take the seat. That is the analysis I want to do.”

Ragoonath said as it stands, he does not think Tsoiafatt-Angus has presented a strong enough case to unseat the incumbent.

“But that does not mean to say she is not going to mount a further challenge as we get closer to the election.”

Also in the election race are Class Action Reform Movement leader Ricardo Phillip and Unity of the People leader Nickocy Phillips, both of whom are contesting the Buccoo/Mt Pleasant seat.

The seat is held currently by Chief Secretary Ancil Dennis, who is seeking a third consecutive term.

It is unclear as to whether former journalist Anthony Hector will contest the Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden seat after suffering a seizure several days ago.

Ragoonath observed the candidates contesting individual seats have, thus far, not made any significant inroads in their respective campaigns.

“That also does not mean that it cannot change. But as far as I am seeing at this point in time, it is still a two-party race between the PNM and PDP.”

Ragoonath, chairman of the Council for Responsible Political Behaviour, said the PNM’s strategy appears to be more organised that its competitors.

“Given the media coverage we are seeing, we are being led to believe that the PNM strategy is at least reaching more people.

“Whether or not they are convincing people and those on the fence to vote for them, we are yet to see.”

Ragoonath said the PNM is in an advantageous position.

“We know for a fact the PNM has a strong base in Tobago. And that is the base they are going to be dependent on to seal and carry them to a victory.”

While he believes the PDP has also made inroads by raising critical issues on the platform, Ragoonath said he is not sure about the campaign strategy.

“I am told it is more a ground campaign that they have embarked upon rather than an air campaign. But the PNM is literally using both the ground and air campaign. We have to wait and see how it plays out.”

Ragoonath observed the campaign has also focussed on employment and enabling young people to be productive and active.

“It remains to be seen whether young people will be encouraged to vote for one party or another depending on the economic position at this point in time.”

Ragoonath said he is pleased with the tone of the campaign so far.

“Based on all of the reports that we have had so far, there has been no breach or the code or no attempt by candidates to do things in conflict with the code.

“So, we are very happy with that and we hope they will continue to behave themselves.”