As the tide turns

Maybe the best thing to have done on Carnival Monday and Tuesday was to surrender to the mud and paint of J'Ouvert morning, than to don a pretty or traditional costume and jump one’s heart out, spout fire like a blue devil, even crack a jab jab whip and beat out deep frustrations over the woes of the world while embracing our surreal TT reality.

Those who didn’t take the path of Carnival escapism were traumatised instead by the antics of the leader of the free world to bring down the guillotine on post-WWII alliances that ensured peace and prosperity for many. It followed the historic diplomatic mauling of President Zelensky in the Oval Office on Carnival Friday when US Vice President Vance and President Trump ganged up on Ukraine’s president, humiliating him and then evicting him for trying to establish the facts as everyone, except the US, knows them to be about Russian aggression and unreliability. The minerals deal Zelensky came to sign remained unsigned. We witnessed the ignominy of world leaders being forced to duck from the grizzly in the White House which was no longer just huffing but on the attack.

On March 1, Ukrainians were licking their wounds but backing their diminutive leader who’d defended himself. On March 2, Canada and European leaders held a high-level meeting to express solidarity. They also acknowledged that the 1947 peace pact is over and rearmament is now an imperative. They realise that the US does not care about Europe, and not even the UK very much, although PM Sir Keir Stramer is classed as a friend – maybe because he has a royal card in play.

Britain may have a unique role as a bridge to the White House, however, its span may not be great enough. Like everyone else, Sir Keir has had to bite his lip and endure the numerous misrepresentations emanating from Washington and the bullying that is Trump-style deal making. Even King Charles invited President Zelensky to chew the fat, thumbing his lofty nose at Trump, but Britain may have to choose sides sooner or later to safeguard its own future.

On March 4, to penalise Zelensky for not fawning, maybe even for meeting the British King before he, himself, could cash in on an unprecedented second state dinner, Trump announced an immediate suspension of promised US military supplies to Ukraine and on March 5, withdrew intelligence aid. Ritually humiliated for everything, including his manner of dress – the uniform of solidarity with his soldiers that he wears officially and even with royalty, Zelensky received a veritable stab in his vulnerable back from Ukraine’s once strongest western ally.

The effect was felt at once on the battleground in Ukraine. Sadly, Zelensky too was soon eating humble pie and apologising to President Trump, who has all the cards while Zelensky does not even play cards. The US supplies most of the important war material Ukraine needs to conduct the unasked-for war with Russia and only has limited armaments left. Will Ukraine sign away its mineral wealth without security guarantees from Trump and Putin and cede 20 per cent of its territory when Russia has broken all former signed agreements and claims Ukraine belongs to Russia?

Also on March 4, in anticipation of the president’s address to Congress that evening, the threatened tariffs on Canadian, Chinese and Mexican imports took effect, starting a trade war. Canada’s PM Trudeau responded immediately with a retaliatory 25 per cent tariff on $155 billion worth of US goods and promised not to back down till the US does. He told Trump that he may be “a smart guy” but his tariffs are “dumb.” Already nervous, stock markets plummeted as investors realised that the tariffs were no bluff. China introduced 15 per cent tariffs on farm goods while Mexico has been negotiating. On March 6, Trump changed the tariff regime for his neighbours.

Since January, we have seen the tide turn on everything, everywhere, all at once, from mass purges of US state organisations and tariffs replacing sanctions as a weapon, to the unravelling of world peace. The big question is about Trump’s motivation in rehabilitating Putin and US-Russian friendship for no obvious gain. Speculation exists that Trump owes a personal debt to Russia. This is the most plausible of all the possible answers but his endgame is indecipherable.

Whatever the reasoning, the consequences of Trump’s trade/foreign policy could multiply: higher US inflation and unemployment; social unrest in the US and in Europe where a seven per cent decline in living standards is forecast after increasing defence spending; more stock market turbulence; Russia and the US aligning against the rest of Europe and isolating or realigning with China; with the breakdown in international order, more land grabbing by other bully nations; maybe, with members at odds, NATO’s dissolution, and perhaps even the UN’s (a worst case scenario). It’s not pretty, to steal a line from President Trump.