Analysts: Trump's presidency unstable, Caribbean will bend to US policy

POLITICAL analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath believes US President-elect Donald Trump’s tenure over the next four years is likely to be “unstable and unpredictable,” particularly as it relates to that country’s relationship with Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean.

Trump, 78, who defeated Democratic contender Kamala Harris in the US general election on November 5, is expected to be formally sworn in as the 47th US president on January 20 inside of the US Capitol’s rotunda in Washington.

The inauguration heralds Trump’s second term as president. He won the US general election in 2016, but lost the presidency to Democratic nominee Joe Biden in November 2020.

In an interview with Newsday, Ragoonath said, “We are into a very unstable, unpredictable period because we do not know exactly what Trump will do and how quickly he will do it.

“People are expecting him from Monday evening to send in a set of executive orders with regard to the deportation issue. But clearly, he has an agenda which many of us can’t seem to come to terms with.”

Regarding TT relations, Ragoonath suggested a Trump presidency could affect this country’s gas deals with neighbouring Venezuela as well as its Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the US.

He believes Trump’s decision to appoint Florida senator Marco Rubio as the secretary of state and the latter’s subsequent pronouncement on Venezuela “will suggest that there could be some implications for TT.”

Rubio, at his Senate confirmation hearing on January 15, was quoted in an article as saying the Biden administration “got played” in negotiations with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which encouraged him to hold elections in return for granting licenses.

According to the article, Rubio said the elections turned out to be “completely fake,” while Maduro “leveraged migration against us to get those concessions.”

It further quoted him as saying, “Now they have these general licenses where companies like Chevron are actually providing billions of dollars of money into the regime’s coffers and the regime kept none of the promises that they made. So all that needs to be re-explored.”

Chevron is the only US oil producer left in Venezuela. The company was producing about 180,000 barrels per day from Venezuela as of mid-2024.

Ragoonath said, “Clearly, if they are going to go after Venezuela, the question is whether or not Trinidad will be impacted, particularly for our Dragon gas deals that the current government has negotiated with license from the Biden administration. But I don’t know whether that licence will hold under the Trump administration.”

The senior UWI lecturer said the future of the SOFA agreement is also uncertain.

“Although the government has said that SOFA is not significantly different to what it was previously, does that SOFA agreement still give the US the opportunity to use TT as a jumping-off point to Venezuela. That would now depend on the negotiation that the government will have to enter into with regard to the Trump administration.

“And will the Trump administration see Trinidad as being an obstacle or a supporter of the Trump administration as they move forward into their own US foreign-policy agenda?

“Those are the kinds of things that immediately come to the fore. We have to look at those two concerns, particularly as it relates to TT and Venezuela and how the US will look at TT.”

As it relates to the rest of the Caribbean, Ragoonath said Trump’s long-held campaign to “make America great again” could see an attempt to effect mass deportations.

Interestingly, Ragoonath said, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, on January 15, announced proposals for the state’s upcoming special legislative session.

The proposed action is expected to position Florida to carry out Trump’s mandate to address illegal immigration.

Last week, New York mayor Eric Adams also announced that 13 new emergency shelters serving Caribbean and other asylum seekers across the five boroughs, including Hall Street in Brooklyn, one of the city’s largest facilities, housing about 3,500 immigrants, are slated to close by June 2025, he noted.

“Where does that put our illegal immigrants? To what extent are we going to have illegal immigrants trying to hide out in America as opposed to whether they will get shipped back to their respective countries. That will become an issue.”

Ragoonath added, “I am assuming that people who have been living in the US for the past 15 to 20 years never renewed their passports for their respective countries. As far as they are concerned, they have no passport so where are they sending them back to?

“But clearly, they are going to be looking at where they are going to send back some people and we don’t know how that will impact upon TT.”

C'bean will bend to Trump's will

Political scientist Derek Ramsamooj believes TT and the rest of the Caribbean “will not be significant” to the new Trump administration.

Rather, Ramsamooj suggested the regional leaders, many of whom he believes suffer from hubris syndrome (inflated egos), must recognise the impact of Trump’s political personality.

He also believes the geopolitics of the relationship with Cuba and Venezuela will be of greater importance as opposed to the ambitions of the Caribbean leadership.

“The foreign policy of ‘Trumpism’ will, indeed, be followed by the region’s leadership. So the issue is not the Caribbean leadership influencing US foreign policy in the coming years. It is Caribbean leadership bending to the demands of the US foreign policy.”

UNC MP: Dragon gas will haunt Young

UNC deputy political leader Dr Roodal Moonilal claimed the relationship between the outgoing Prime Minister and his soon-to-be successor Stuart Young "will now threaten Trinidad and Tobago’s economic recovery after ten years of stagnation, business decline and economic malaise.”

He believes under the Trump administration, “the all-eggs-in-one-basket dependency of Dragon gas has come back to haunt (Energy Minister) Stuart Young, who, today cannot answer questions on his multiple Venezuelan jaunts.

“I think the Trump administration will have one eye on Young and will be keen to get his answers as to whom he met since several energy ministers of Venezuela have been arrested on corruption charges and other officials have been on a US sanctions list.”

The Oropouche East MP also questioned Young’s visit to Venezuela before its general election.

“Interesting times ahead indeed.”

Moonilal described Trump’s return to the White House as “an historic juncture in American history with the return of a former president outside of the two-term cycle.”