Considering the new normal

Two years after the worst effects on humans from the covid19 pandemic, Anjani Ganase reports on how it affected the natural world. The lessons still to be learned involve reducing human activities to allow nature to thrive.

During the 2020 covid19 lockdowns, there were numerous reports about the return of wildlife to urban spaces. These were the positive feel-good side notes while we were restricted in lockdown. Much of what was observed reveals the much-needed respite for the natural world from humans. Two years on, scientists have finished crunching the data on the significance of changes observed in natural ecosystems during lockdowns. Here in TT, the beaches were closed for over a year.

Our carbon footprint

Apart from the obvious declines in traffic and congregating, the declines in outdoor activities equated to significant drops in carbon dioxide emissions at a global scale. What were the effects on the global target to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 C by end of century? Scientists found that the four months of complete lockdown by most nations worldwide resulted in an eight per cent drop in carbon emissions. Such a drop in emissions was never seen in any previous economic downturn including World War II.

To put this in perspective, climate modellers had suggested that if we peak our carbon emissions in 2019, we’d have to reduce our carbon emissions by 15 per cent year on year until 2040 to stay within 1.5 C rise by the end of century. Considering the drastic and sudden shifts in the global activities that resulted in eight per cent drop, the chance of achieving 15 per cent seems slim; an estimated five per cent chance. To limit to a 2 C temperature rise by the end of century, if we peaked in 2019, it would still require an annual reduction of four to five per cent. Covid19 gave us a real-life visualisation of what rapid declines in carbon emissions could look like. Hopefully, the pandemic opened our eyes to the need for urgent transitioning away from fossil fuels to avoid global economic fallout.

The maritime sector

As the world stalled, so did the maritime sector. Globally, there are about 90,000 commercial vessels traversing our oceans on any given day. During the lockdown, marine traffic plummeted, with an average decline of 70 per cent across all major economic exclusion zones (Europe, US, China etc) that imposed lockdowns. The decline in vessel use was highest in recreational craft, which dropped by about 97 per cent across regions. This decline peaked in April 2020. There were a few exceptions: traffic increased around the horn of Africa. Commercial vessels chose the long way round to avoid the Suez Canal and their hefty tolls. The most impacted vessels were the passenger vessels (cruise liners) for the tourism industry. This significantly impacted tourism dependent countries such as in the Caribbean.

In June 2020, marine traffic began to increase as countries began to ease restrictions, with the commercial vessels showing the fastest recovery. However, it took much longer for passenger vessels to recover to full potential after peak pandemic lockdowns. Several outbreaks on cruise liners received media attention and are likely to have lowered the demand for cruise ships in the months after.

Interestingly, scientists that conducted noise monitoring along the south-east coast of the US found that declining nearshore marine traffic resulted in significant reductions in marine noises because of reduction in international shipping and recreational boating. However, offshore marine traffic noises were near to pre-covid19 levels owing to the continued transport of domestic goods.

Global fisheries activities were down only 6.5 per cent owing to the low demand of fish products by restaurants. In the economic exclusion zone of China, fishing was down by 40 per cent or 1.2 million hours of fishing; in Peru it dropped by eight per cent and the Indonesian fishing trade declined by 70 per cent. European fishing declined by 50 per cent. In Florida, the death of manatees because of boat collisions dropped by 50 per cent. It is certain that collisions with marine mammals would have dropped globally as well. Marine populations definitely breathed a sigh of relief in 2020.

Marine life

The reported returns of wildlife to urban spaces, such as dolphins visiting the canals of Venice, a cleaner Ganges River in India, abundant nesting turtles on beaches in Thailand, were largely due to the sudden improvements in water quality as commercial discharges and human activities were reduced. Scientists seized the opportunity to observe changes in marine life as human presence was reduced. In South Africa, there was a sixfold increase in the density of sea birds on urban beaches during the lockdowns. Once lockdowns eased up, bird densities dropped by 80 per cent even with only a 34 per cent increase in humans.

In Tobago, when I was permitted to conduct annual coral reef monitoring surveys during lock downs, we observed greater fish numbers and friendlier fish behaviour. Fish born in the time of covid19 were not aware of the typical noisy and predatory behaviours of humans. Fisheries in the French Polynesia found a twofold increase in fish populations in commercial and non-commercial fish species in both protected and non-protected marine areas around the island of Moorea. There was also an overall improvement in the air and water quality for the island. Other scientists made similar observations in other locations. Monitoring of beaches in Ecuador including the Galapagos, showed overall improvements in beach health with lower plastic pollution, better water quality and higher biodiversity. In fact, these lower levels (lower than ever recorded and probably closest to an undisturbed environment) are to be used for new baselines for monitoring environmental health in these areas and as targets in management planning. It reveals just how much human presence has altered the natural world.

Going back, or a new normal?

It was not all positive: some reports project that a significant portion of the 8.4 million tonnes of medical plastic waste generated through the pandemic will end up in the marine environment. Furthermore, while many reports show some boosts in the marine populations and habitat health during the period of lockdowns, many of these shifts have already reverted negatively as the world recovered in 2021. There are likely to be no long-lasting positive effects.

However, the time of covid19 does reveal the potential for change to a healthier world, where we live less intrusively and provide more spaces for nature to thrive. Before we rush headlong “back to normal,” will we consider and take on the challenge?