Rowley fights back alliance

The local government elections have sent the country into a psychological turmoil. It looks like a general election. There are political attacks and quickened counter-attacks. The society is now on high-anxiety level. Little things said can have big-time effects, especially on sensitive politicians.

Between last week’s selection of the 373 candidates for the precious 141 seats (districts) of the 14 regional corporations on August 14, most of the campaign will be psychologically-driven – anxiety, desperate expectations, revenge, motivation, assumptions, propaganda-laden messages. Of course, such elements will have to contend with the fixtures of ethnicity and enduring loyalties as evidenced by the sociological distribution of candidates.

The psychologically-driven battle cries have already been loudly declared. One headline blared: Gary says new coalition will ‘annihilate’ PM Rowley. As widely reported, both UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar and National Transformation Alliance (NTA) leader, media-savvy Griffith said the “common enemy is PM Dr Keith Rowley who must be removed.” The psychology here seems to be singling out Rowley rather than the PNM as a whole. PNM’s Lady Vice Chairman, Camille Robinson-Regis uncharitably described the “alliance” as a “pick-up side.”

Beyond Griffith’s political and policing history, will the UNC’s assumptions about Gary’s NTA 31-candidate alliance succeed in helping to gain more than seven corporations and possibly “removing Rowley” subsequently? Last Thursday at PNM'ss St James’ meeting, Dr Rowley, fighting back, severely criticised Griffith’s policing record, especially in granting firearm licenses, “shutting down police stations” and his “motive” for forming a political party.

The apparent alliance strategy is capturing the floating “middle class and ethnic” votes in six corporations, including the East-West Corridor ones. This is particularly so in Diego Martin (UNC 2; NTA 8), Port of Spain (UNC 6; NTA 6), Point Fortin (UNC 1; NTA 5), San Juan/Laventille (UNC 8; NTA 6) The UNC is contesting 110 seats, PNM all 141. Will this alliance gamble succeed?

If it fails, hopes for a Congress of the People-type alliance will disappear. If the alliance succeeds, it will help create a political gateway towards 2025. And Ms Persad-Bissessar will have a management challenge while Dr Rowley may have to smell the coffee. And this while he is battling Tobago House of Assembly Chief Secretary Farley Augustine. After all, the two Tobago seats still retain critical value.

But it will not be a straight route for the alliance. The undaunted Phillip Alexander’s Progressive Empowerment Party (PEP) has 40 candidates spread across 13 corporations – 25 in six of the UNC-NTA alliance corporations: Port of Spain (3), Arima (4), Diego Martin (4), San Juan (5), Point Fortin (6), Tunapuna/Piarco (3).

Claiming a “disadvantage by the big parties” Alexander belatedly called for “fixed dates for elections.” Given Mr Alexander’s energy and the small margin often separating local government results, will he emerge as a “vote-splitter” or capturing seats for post-August 14 negotiations, thus questioning early alliance assumptions? Civic-minded David Abdullah’s Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) put up three candidates in Point Fortin.

What about the assumptions and motivations of the four UNC defectors who “fast and furious” Deputy UNC leader Jearlean John humorously described as being “more fake" than her "hair extensions.” UNC defector Marcus Girdharie, accompanied by welcoming minister Kazim Hosein, filed as PNM candidate for Marabella/South. Lustily prancing across the PNM convention stage last Sunday, Girdharie was obviously motivated by the UNC rejection. Motivated for revenge.

Similarly for UNC defector, Sheldon “Fish” Garcia for Arima Central, the same seat he held for the UNC. The assumption that Girdharie and Garcia will win is that each personally could retain many of his traditional UNC base while pulling some PNM votes for a majority.

Now it must be noted that the 68-year old PNM is a stable party also with a solid loyalty base, always boasting of “winning or losing” alone. It was therefore surprising that the four UNC defectors would be so quickly welcomed. However, party cross-overs are nothing new. Moreover, Rowley, Colm Imbert, Robinson-Regis are experienced platform veterans. The fight is on.

So while the PNM does face many ground-level challenges, it will be no walk-over for the alliance challengers. Its ground-level campaign machine showed resilience, except on three occasions when a strong opposition alliance faced it. Is the current UNC-NTA alliance strong enough?