Imbert welcomes Moody's 'stable outlook' for Trinidad and Tobago

FINANCE Minister Colm Imbert welcomed Moody's maintenance of its "stable" outlook for Trinidad and Tobago's economy on January 8, as he claimed it reflected the government's actions.

He also said it more widely pointed to "a very promising" medium-term outlook for Trinidad and Tobago.

However, Oropouche West MP Davendranath Tancoo said Imbert flatly ignored the fact that Moody's saw "no improvement" in Trinidad and Tobago.

The opposition spokesman on finance also more broadly questioned some of Imbert's recent utterances.

On July 11, 2023, the media had reported that Moody's had improved Trinidad and Tobago's rating from stable to positive. However on June 25, 2024, Moody's had reduced Trinidad and Tobago's outlook from positive to stable. Stable is a prediction an entity's creditworthiness will remain the same, whereas positive is a forecast of an improvement.

Moody's has also rated the Trinidad and Tobago economy as Ba2 said a statement from the Finance Ministry. The Moody's website explained, "Obligations rated Baa are subject to moderate credit risk. They are considered medium grade and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics."

The ministry did not provide copies of the Moody's report to media houses which were left to rely on its account of the report.

The ministry statement said of Moody's, "This affirmation was underpinned by the country's return to sustained growth, primarily driven by the non-energy sector."

The statement said reduced energy revenues in 2024 worsened the fiscal deficit from 1.7 per cent of GDP last year to 4.8 percent now, but Moody's recognized the Government’s revenue diversification efforts via the Trinidad and Tobago Revenue Authority in 2025.

"The rating agency also acknowledges that potential fiscal risks are mitigated by significant buffers.

"These include the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) and cash reserves amounting to more than 40 per cent of GDP in fiscal year 2024."

Imbert opined, “The rating agency recognises the diversification efforts undertaken by our country which are reflected in the growth of our non-energy sector as well as our constitutional system of checks and balances, and an improved data transparency track record.”

He said the rating also reflected the government's commitment to implement structural fiscal and economic reforms.

The statement said Moody’s indicated a stable outlook on the current Ba2 rating, due to the decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s foreign exchange reserves in early 2024 due to lower energy revenues caused by declining gas prices.

However the ministry cited good news from Moody's.

“Shell Trinidad and Tobago's investment decision reduces uncertainty regarding Trinidad and Tobago's future hydrocarbon production prospects and aligns with our baseline view about renewed expansion in natural gas production starting 2027.”

Citing Imbert, the statement said, “Our country is increasingly attracting oil and gas investment and Moody's recognizes this.”

New gas projects like the Osprey or the Cascadura fields will add production this year and support Trinidad and Tobago's growth prospects, the statement added.

The statement quoted Imbert, “The outlook for the medium term is very promising.”

It added that Trinidad and Tobago's strengths were perceived by international markets.

"In June 2024, the nation issued a ten-year US$750 million bond at a very attractive rate of 2.18 per cent over US Treasury Notes. Today, yields on Trinidad and Tobago's debt are lower than those of countries rated two or three notches higher by Moody’s, such as Panama (Baa3) and Colombia (Baa2).

"Trinidad and Tobago holds investment grade ratings of BBB- from S&P and AA from CariCRIS, reflecting the country's strong economic fundamentals and prudent fiscal management."