CMO: Omicron can overwhelm Trinidad and Tobago if given the chance

CMO Dr Roshan Parasram said there are 212 patients in accident and emergency departments awaiting transfer to the parallel healthcare system. Describing this as alarming, he said this is the highest number that has been seen for any period since the beginning of the pandemic.

Speaking at the Health Ministry’s virtual media conference on Wednesday, Parasram said the system is full almost to capacity and this will be exacerbated if the omicron variant becomes widespread, as it has in other countries.

“It is a matter of time before it is detected in the majority of the world.

"We are looking at an R-0 in excess of 15, where one infected person can infect up to 15 other people, which means it will spread very quickly. There will be a large surge very quickly and the impact on the health system cannot be mitigated unless the case numbers go down.

"We can control it if we take all the precautions, but the rate of spread is very alarming to all of us, on top of what we’re seeing with delta.”

The cases in the A&Es are in addition to the 675 people in hospitals and step-down facilities.

“Expansion of a system by creating beds is one thing, but we have a finite resource in terms of human resources that cannot spread very much further. We continue to do our best to expand the ICU capacity, but in the last couple of weeks, the expansion has been smaller in terms of the number of beds we have been able to add. But we will continue to do so as best we can.

"We need to focus on getting the numbers down as a country. Vaccination needs to go up quickly as well, as 89 per cent of people in the system are unvaccinated.”

Parasram said the omicron variant is spreading faster worldwide than any previous variant, with the number of cases doubling within two-three days. If it begins to spread in TT, he predicted a large surge in cases, with an increase in hospitalisations, on top of the increased numbers of severe cases already being reported by the regional health authorities (RHAs).

He said there would be no way to mitigate against it, especially as healthcare workers are burnt out and the parallel healthcare system is almost full.

Parasram said in the UK, 4,713 cases had been detected up to Monday, and the UK Health Security Agency estimated that omicron would become the dominant strain by mid-December if trends continued.

He said in South Africa, there were 2,828 cases on November 26, 4,373 on November 30, 19,842 on December 8, and 37,875 on December 12. He said the delta variant dominated in all provinces until the end of October 2021, and omicron dominated the sequencing in samples submitted from November onward.

Parasram said the virus had been found in 77 countries as of Tuesday and it was concerning that people were dismissing the variant as being mild.

“Even if omicron causes less severe disease, which is still to be determined, the large number of cases can soon overwhelm health care systems."

He also warned preliminary data suggests "a possible reduction in vaccine efficacy and effectiveness against infection and transmission associated with this variant, although a booster dose can give a better chance against it.

“We should continue to observe the 3 Ws of washing hands, watching distance, and wearing a mask, in order to protect yourself from infection/reinfection, to protect others, including your loved ones, to prevent the formation of new covid19 variants, and to break the chain of transmission.”

He said the population has to go back to the basics of following the public health regulations, avoiding gatherings as much as possible, vaccinating and getting boosters.

Epidemiologist Dr Avery Hinds said the introduction of the omicron variant in TT is of concern, as the country is already experiencing an accelerated phase of infection.

“We are seeing the continuation of a rapid upward trend from November to December. We have seen a 13-20 per cent increase in infections week on week, and the number in December has almost caught up with November.

"We are also seeing an increase in deaths in younger people. The numbers of cases in communities are quite high and increasing.”

Health Minister Terrence Deyalsingh said it was no secret that healthcare workers are tired and exhausted, as seen in media reports.

“They are under stress, especially those on the frontline. Each RHA is trying to rotate staff as far as humanly possible, remembering there are not another 2,000 fresh doctors you can drop into the system, and we have to accept that as the reality, not only here but worldwide.

"I meet personally with the directors of health, the nursing general managers, the primary care physicians, the directors of health, the RHA CEOs every single day, where every single one of these concerns are discussed and brought to our attention.

“We try to do psychological counselling, the mental detoxification, give days off – we do all those things –but that is not enough. What we need now is (fewer) people coming into the hospitals. "The final resolution is us at the RHAs and the ministry trying to give these frontline heroes relief, but we also need the population to not engage in activities that can spread the virus and to get vaccinated so they will not come to the hospital if they get ill.”

He reminded that it is not only the frontline workers who are under stress, but also cleaners, messengers, porters, patient care escorts, consultants, lab technicians and everyone else in the healthcare system.

Deyalsingh said no country in the world had been able to stop the spread of omicron, and it required a joint effort from both the government and the people to slow it down.