Why an early-warning system for floods is important

GERARDO NOTO

Flooding across Trinidad in the opening days of the rainy season was an unpleasant reminder that flood early warning systems are imperative to protect property, save lives and mitigate the economic and social impact of flooding.

The role of early warning systems becomes particularly important in light of the vulnerability which faces Trinidad and Tobago as a Small Island Developing State in the Caribbean. Its geographical location, low-lying coastal plains and tropical climate all feed into the well-established root causes of flooding.

In an article published earlier this year, Professor Michelle Mycoo said nearly half of the lands suitable for agriculture, 46 per cent, were converted to housing between 1984 and 2012, resulting in an increase in impermeable areas with accompanying rapid surface water runoff and floods.

In addition, squatters have encroached on watersheds and flood-prone coastal lands. Given the complex historical land tenure issue and high cost of housing in the country, approximately 55,000 households occupy state lands while an additional 30,000 households are on private lands in similar areas.

A 2016 study by Robin Rajack and Michael Frojmovic indicated that land occupation in ecologically fragile zones, on hillsides and poorly drained clay soils contributes significantly to flooding.

Another study led by Dr Ronald Roopnarine in 2018 explained that coastlines experience seasonal storm surges and high tides which, combined with climate associated sea level rise, has exacerbated flooding and the problem of saltwater intrusion in low-lying regions.

But flood prone areas remain attractive for socio-economic reasons such as accessibility, agriculture, commerce and housing. Flooding across both islands is compounded by the fact that the hurricane season, though not impacting directly on Trinidad and Tobago, coincides with and exacerbates the effects of the rainy season.

The resulting damage can easily run into the millions.

Dr Roopnarine’s 2018 research found that damage and losses from flooding in the years 1993, 2002 and 2006 were US$580,000 (TT$4 million), US$3,300,000 (TT$22.4 million) and US$2,500,000 (TT$17 million) respectively.

These losses spread across infrastructure, agriculture, and private property. In October 2018, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported an estimated 150,000 people from 4,100 households were impacted and approximately 75 percent of farmers in the country were severely affected through the loss of crops and livestock.

More recently, in November 2022, the IFRC reported approximately 100,000 people were affected by heavy rainfall and official figures released by the Ministry of Rural Development and Local Government indicated there were more than 30 flood incidents, over 51 landslides and 4 incidents of damaged structures across 12 administrative districts.

With so much at stake, and with climate change exacerbating weather patterns and rainfall volumes, the risks associated with failure to introduce a flood early warning system are too significant to ignore.

That’s why the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has been working with the Government of Trinidad and Tobago to support its efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).

One key area of focus has been increasing community resilience to natural disasters, a key global priority for the United Nations.

Addressing the World Meteorological Organization in March, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said “within the next five years, everyone on Earth should be protected by early warning systems against increasingly extreme weather and climate change.”

To help achieve this in Trinidad and Tobago, the European Commission for Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) has provided Euro 400,000 dollars, roughly TT$3 million, in grant funding to strengthen Community Flood Early Warning Systems (CFEWS).

This UNDP partnership project works closely with key national agencies with mandates in this area, including the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management, the TT Meteorological Services, Ministry of Works and Transport, Ministry of Rural Development and Local Government, Tobago Emergency Management Agency, Water Resources Agency and the TT Red Cross Society.

This CFEWS project sets a solid foundation for a broader, more comprehensive national flood early warning system.

It encompasses high tech hardware and software, including seven stream gauges to monitor river levels, three antennae to expand the communication platform and one high-speed computer to produce flood models within 24 hours.

It also builds capacity in flood forecasting, modelling and mapping, a flood-management governance mechanism and community-based preparation and response. However, strengthening the national response to flooding requires a holistic approach to identify the causes and impacts of flooding and develop effective strategies to mitigate these impacts.

This response also entails addressing challenges, such as inadequate infrastructure and timely available resources, lack of awareness and preparedness, and a need for a fully developed early warning system.

To be sure, there is a role for everyone to play in flood response – government, business, communities and individuals.

Sustained multi-sectoral efforts, interventions and involvement are required. There are ample opportunities to broaden and deepen investments in building resilient communities and infrastructure which deal specifically with water management, drainage, enhanced adaptation, mitigation and anticipatory actions related to flooding.

It will take a co-ordinated effort tackling all of these angles to produce a system that mitigates losses and saves lives and livelihoods.

To move forward, it is imperative that all stakeholders work together and co-operate to create a safer society and promote a resilient and sustainable future for all.

Gerardo Noto is the UNDP Resident Representative.