UNC poised for victory

THE EDITOR: As the general election draws closer, the political landscape in TT is more unpredictable than ever.

A newspaper article by Prof Hamid Ghany underscores the razor-thin margins shaping this contest, with boundary changes made by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) serving as a critical factor that may redefine electoral outcomes.

The PNM, holding on to a slim 22-19 majority, faces intense pressure from the UNC, which needs just two more seats to flip the balance of power.

The EBC’s 2024 boundary review introduces shifts in key constituencies such as Claxton Bay (formerly Pointe-a-Pierre), La Horquetta/Talparo, San Fernando West, and Toco/Sangre Grande, all of which are marginal. The adjustments appear to slightly benefit the UNC in Claxton Bay and San Fernando West, reduce PNM margins in Toco/Sangre Grande, and only marginally strengthen the PNM in La Horquetta/Talparo from the analysis.

Another constituency that deserves attention and will determine the balance of power, though not mentioned in the article, is Aranguez/St Joseph, a known swing seat with a history of tight electoral races.

The demographic profile of this constituency, which has seen shifts in voter alignment over the past few elections, suggests it could play a decisive role in 2025. With the current MP's poor performance, the seat is poised to be taken over by Devesh Maharaj.

Based on ground-level political movements, increased voter engagement in UNC strongholds, and a narrowing PNM base in the east-west corridor, Aranguez/St Joseph is increasingly moving in favour of the UNC. The party’s intensified outreach efforts and ground movement in this area are likely to tip the scales, giving it a slight but critical edge in what is expected to be a low-margin win.

When paired with gains in Claxton Bay and a tighter race in San Fernando West, this could provide the UNC with the exact number of seats needed to shift the parliamentary majority.

Ultimately, the general election is shaping up to be decided not by broad national swings, but by micro-level constituency swings, where just a few hundred votes could alter the future direction of the country. If trends hold and turnout is mobilised effectively, the UNC appears poised to edge out the PNM in a fiercely contested battle for control.

DR NEIL GOSINE

UNC treasurer