Political analyst: Tobago electorate divided

WITH just over three weeks to go before the general election, political analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath believes the Tobago electorate is “divided at this point.”

Six political parties are contesting the Tobago East and Tobago West seats in the April 28 poll. The People’s National Movement (PNM) has controlled both seats in the Parliament since 2015.

The other parties are the Tobago People’s Party (TPP); Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP); Innovative Democratic Alliance (IDA); Unity of the People (UTP); and the Patriotic Front (PF).

Social activist Leroy George is contesting the election as an independent candidate for Tobago West. Nomination Day is April 4.

In an interview on April 2, Ragoonath told Newsday there appears to be “significant opposition” to the PNM in the Tobago East constituency.

“. . . but if that opposition is divided between the TPP and the PDP, it creates a scenario for the PNM to get in there. That is the context.”

“In Tobago East, if it were a straight two-way fight (between the PNM and TPP), I think the PNM would have been coming short. But with Mr (Watson) Duke (PDP political leader) there himself, that I think could create a three-way fight in Tobago East.

“I suspect and I expect that Mr Duke has significant support in Tobago East.

“But I don’t know how his campaign will pan out in Tobago East because if supposedly the opposition vote (opposition to the PNM) is split between TPP and PDP, then the PNM could slip in on a plurality. So that I see as a possibility depending on how Mr Duke plays the campaign.”

Duke is also the assemblyman for Belle Garden East/Roxborough/Delaford.

Ragoonath also predicted a fight for the PNM in Tobago West, which is represented by Minister of Sport and Community Development Shamfa Cudjoe-Lewis.

“In Tobago West, it is not an easy win for the PNM. They are going to have a hard fight. I see the fight in Tobago West as the TPP and the PNM.”

The TPP announced Secretary of Community Development, Youth Development and Sport Joel Sampson as its Tobago West candidate during its special convention on March 23.

Asked if Mickela Panday’s Patriotic Front could make an impact in Tobago, Ragoonath said he does not know how well-known the party’s two candidates, Aretha Clarke (Tobago West) and Wade Caruth (Tobago East), are on the island.

“But what I would also say in regard to a lot of the smaller parties is that Trinidadians and Tobagonians are informed and enlightened enough to know that while Mickela is going to contest all 41 seats, they will know that her party doesn’t have that kind of strength to win an election.”

He added, “If you don’t have the strength to win an election and head the government, the question is, ‘Will they want to support a candidate who will win a seat but remain in opposition?’ That, I think is the big question throughout the country.

“Will you vote for a candidate that can probably win a seat but not win an election and your constituency remains in opposition rather than in government. Even if it’s a small party and they don’t even form the main opposition, well even worse off for them.

“That is what I say Trinidadians and Tobagonians are informed and enlightened people who may very well be thinking along those lines rather than just saying, ‘That is the best person.’”

Ragoonath does not believe the smaller parties will make any major impact.

“We saw that in the THA elections in 2021. IDA didn’t really get off the ground and Nickocy Phillips’ Unity of the People didn’t get off the ground. And I don’t think they would get that much support.

“They will get a handful of support here and there. But I don’t think that people will trust that they will have any major impact on the election and on governance in Tobago.”