AmChamTT-EY survey finds low business confidence, major forex headaches

WITH just over one-fifth of businesses expressing optimism about the economic outlook for 2025, confidence in TT’s business environment remains worryingly low.

A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce of TT (AmChamTT) in partnership with Ernst & Young (EY) released on January 31 highlighted several factors contributing to this sentiment, including foreign-exchange challenges, rising inflation, operational constraints and the absence of a clearly defined national development strategy.

The Economic Outlook Survey, which polled senior executives, business unit heads and directors across more than ten industries, aimed to assess perspectives on economic growth, talent strategies, corporate priorities and digitalisation trends.

The findings indicate that 79 per cent of respondents lack confidence in the economy, a continuation of concerns seen in previous years.

One of the most significant concerns raised in the survey was the ongoing foreign-exchange (forex) crisis. The country’s official forex reserves fell from US$6.3 billion in December 2023 to US$5.6 billion by December 2024, exacerbating challenges for businesses reliant on imports and international transactions.

Sixty-three per cent of respondents said their operations depend heavily on forex, with half reporting that obtaining foreign currency had become increasingly difficult over the past year. Forty-five per cent saw no improvement in accessibility.

The limited availability has led companies to seek alternative forex sources, with 66 per cent relying on government agencies such as EximBank, 11 per cent on traditional banks and just five per cent securing forex through export revenue.

Comparatively, these figures show a growing dependence on EximBank, as only 62 per cent reported using it in 2024.

Operational costs and business constraints

Beyond forex constraints, businesses reported grappling with inflationary pressures and tightening profit margins.

Rising costs of goods and services, coupled with limited ability to adjust prices, have created financial strain.

The survey identified three primary economic constraints affecting businesses: increasing inflation, difficulty in raising prices to offset costs and the uncertainty stemming from the lack of a medium-to-long-term national development plan.

The broader economic indicators paint a complex picture; GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2025, an improvement from 1.3 per cent in 2023, and the country's credit rating from Moody’s remains at Ba2.

However, oil and gas production figures indicate volatility. Oil production dropped from 56,300 barrels per day in Q1 2023 to 49,900 in Q1 2024, while natural gas output also declined from 2.71 billion cubic feet per day to 2.64 billion. These fluctuations affect government revenues and add to the economic uncertainty facing businesses.

Investment and business expansion outlook

Despite concerns about economic conditions, many businesses are still planning for growth. The survey found that 71 per cent of respondents intend to invest or expand in 2025, up from 66 per cent in 2024.

Key investment areas include emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, business model adaptation to evolving customer demands and efforts to enhance corporate resilience in response to global economic shifts.

Talent acquisition and retention remain significant priorities. Companies also reported putting greater effort into environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations as they navigate long-term sustainability goals.

Digitalisation and cybersecurity investments

A significant portion of respondents highlighted digitalisation as a key strategic focus. The top digital investment priorities include cyber resilience and recovery, enterprise identity and access management, cloud security and employee training in information security management systems – efforts to protect businesses against cyber threats while improving operational efficiency.

The survey also showed companies are increasingly integrating digital tools to drive revenue growth, enhance productivity and streamline research and development processes. The long-term impact of digital transformation remains a focus, with many businesses expecting fundamental shifts in operational models over the next three-five years.

Crime, supply-chain issues and bribery concerns

Crime continues to be a pressing concern for the business community. While 97 per cent of respondents reported they had not been coerced into paying protection money in 2025, an improvement from 91 per cent in 2024, businesses remain wary of the broader implications of crime on economic stability.

Forty-nine per cent of respondents cited supply-chain disruptions, particularly port congestion, as a significant issue affecting their operations. These disruptions have contributed to longer lead times, increased costs and challenges in meeting customer demands.

On a positive note, incidents of bribery appear to be declining.

In 2025, 97 per cent of respondents said neither they nor their employees had been asked to pay bribes, compared to 82 per cent in 2024.

Government and private-sector priorities

The survey also examined the differing priorities of the government and the private sector in addressing economic challenges.

In 2024, the government focused on digital transformation, improving the ease of doing business and attracting foreign direct investment.

Meanwhile, the private sector concentrated on private equity and angel investing (investing one’s own money in a business, typically in exchange for ownership equity or convertible debt) and collaborating with public sector agencies on national projects.

AmChamTT president Stuart Franco, speaking at the chamber’s Annual Economic Outlook Forum, at Hilton Trinidad, Port of Spain, on January 29, described the survey findings as a reflection of the uncertainty and frustration among business leaders.

He stressed the urgent need for policymakers to provide a clear and actionable national development plan to restore confidence in the economy.

“While this situation is concerning, I believe it’s also a moment for us to recalibrate,” Franco said, pointing to opportunities in AI, digital transformation and workforce training as areas that could drive economic growth.

He noted that while projections from the International Monetary Fund suggest economic growth of 2.4 per cent, long-standing structural challenges, such as crime and forex shortages, must be addressed to create a stable and attractive business environment.

While macroeconomic indicators suggest modest growth, according to the survey, businesses remain cautious due to persistent forex shortages, inflationary pressures and crime. However, the commitment to investment, digitalisation and corporate resilience signals that businesses are not standing still.