Analyst: Unknown path ahead for Young, PNM

POLITICAL analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath says there is no telling how the rank and file of the People's National Movement (PNM) feels about the selection of Energy Minister Stuart Young to replace Dr Rowley as prime minister when the latter demits office.

He was contacted for comment on January 6, moments after Rowley announced the PNM's parliamentary caucus had selected Young to succeed him as PM, at the end of a two-day parliamentary retreat in Tobago. This came three days after Rowley said he would resign as PM and also not offer himself as a candidate in the general election.

Ragoonath said it was very interesting that Rowley chose to go the route of selecting Young as the new PM via the parliamentary arm of the party, rather than first resigning as political leader and then holding a special convention of the party to allow the general membership to elect a new leader.

Then when this was done, Rowley would resign as PM to allow the new political leader to be appointed PM until the general election was called and that person would lead the PNM in the election.

He said this was the system used by another leader – Canada's PM Justin Trudeau – who yesterday announced he would resign as leader of the party that formed the government of that country, but would remain as PM, until the party selected a new leader, and when that happens, he would resign as Canada's PM to allow the new party leader to be sworn in.

Asked if there could be resentment among the PNM general membership at not being part of the process of first electing a new political leader, who would then be sworn in as PM, Ragoonath said it was hard to say, since the PNM generally is a well-disciplined party and usually followed the dictates of its leader.

However, he pointed to some discontent in November, notably by former labour minister Jennifer Baptiste-Primus, who publicly challenged Rowley's decision to postpone the party's convention, a decision she insisted went against its rules and regulations.

He said how the party's members would ultimately act at the polls, given Young's selection as PM rather than first being elected by the general membership , remains to be seen.
"How the party will react, and all those concerns, we really will have to wait and see."

Asked if the PNM's Afro-Trinbagonian mass membership would feel resentment/disenfranchisement by perceiving that Young was foisted into the position of PM, Ragoonath said, "Your question as to whether there could be a backlash, that is always a possibility.

"I know many PNMites who rooted for (Planning Minister) Pennelope Beckles. Some have suggested that Dr Amery Browne would have been of high leadership quality – and they were all bypassed, although of course, Browne could not get to PM at this particular sitting as he's not a member of the House.

"The point about it is that Pennelope Beckles, Foster Cummings...They all are highly regarded and respected within the PNM. For the Prime Minister – in your words – to foist Stuart Young on the party, that could create some degree of backlash."

He was quick to add, though, "It is speculation on our part as to what will happen with the PNM, and how the PNM will react, whether the base of the party will feel they were not consulted.

"Mind you, had they been given the opportunity, had a case been made for Stuart Young to take the party leadership, they may very well have voted for Stuart Young. I am not saying that they would not have.
"But the point about it is that they have not been given, thus far, the opportunity to have their voices heard."

Asked his general thoughts on Young as a new leader, Ragoonath noted three points: Young's ability, his legacy from Rowley, and the "look" of the pending new cabinet under Young's leadership as PM.

Firstly, he said, "I think that for all intents and purposes, he has been the understudy to Keith Rowley for the last few years...with regard to the prime minister, but I am not sure as to the extent to which he would have been seen as the understudy as (PNM) political leader."

Ragoonath said that at the last PNM convention, Young attended not as a deputy political leader, which could have seen as him being an understudy to the political leader, but rather merely as the party's chairman.

Further, he said whereas Beckles and Browne had had the experience of working with both former PM Patrick Manning and Rowley, Young has only worked with the latter.

Secondly, he declared, "Stuart Young would be a replica of Keith Rowley."

This could have disadvantages for Young, based on the recent example of US Vice President Kamala Harris, who failed to forge an identity separate from that of President Joe Biden, which many analysts said, played a role in her losing the presidential election in that country.

"Can Stuart Young, when we go into a general election, say: 'I am not going to do things the way Keith Rowley would have done it' ? Can he do that, can he say that, a la Kamala Harris?"

Ragoonath said Young's narrowness of experience with PNM leaders will limit him in focusing the party to go forward.

Thirdly, he said while the PNM now has a new PM-in-waiting, was this sufficient in terms of the party's appeal?

He said the vast majority of the current slate of 21 PNM MPs would be returning, minus Rowley, MPs Fitzgerald Hinds, Stephen Mc Clashie and Adrian Leonce, and the late Lisa Morris-Julian.

Lamenting a general lack of new faces in the line-up, he said, "There are no real new faces coming in. To that extent, it is the same PNM – the Rowley-led PNM – that is going into the general election.

"How much different will that be in attracting other people? The only attraction we have now is that Rowley is no longer leading, but rather Stuart Young would be. But is that enough?"