The last of several final straws

Paolo Kernahan

AS COLM Imbert basked in the glow of his budget presentation, that "glow," for most discerning people, quickly became a miasma – a smothering stench that portends a grim future for this country and an apparent institutional incapacity to navigate the challenges at our throats.

Following the script faithfully, the government delivered a hollow budget and promptly went to its base to validate its commitment to failure – the Belmont Community Centre was the venue. There PM Rowley summoned an oft-invoked political bogeyman: this wonky idea of people wanting this country to fail.

“When people could be celebrating NiQuan blow-up and could be celebrating that Maduro could do this and the Dragon deal dead – when they could be celebrating that…”

This is ye old political theatre: dressing up criticism of poor governance and incompetence as schadenfreude from bitter haters.

The notion of citizens, activists, online critics, columnists and even the opposition cheering on our irrevocable slide is rubbish. We all have to live (and die) through the consequences of disastrous decisions, mismanagement, corruption and dereliction of duty. Why would any citizen want the country they call home to be reduced to ruin?

The PM, at that post-budget political meeting, said the quiet part out loud: “I just want to warn you that in the absence of a stream of gas coming from those projects we have on the border and across the border the country will not be able to afford its bills.”

Yes. That’s what critics of the single-basket style of economic development have been saying. As for this country not being able to pay its bills, given that we’ve been borrowing like there’s no tomorrow (our external debt nearly equals our foreign reserves), we’ve not been able to pay our bills with the strength of earnings in ages. The PM likely means we won’t be able to service our debts and keep borrowing.

"And if we can’t afford to pay our bills there is only one thing to happen – who have more corn will feed more fowl and who have no teeth would gnash their gums."

Admittedly, Tobago colloquialisms aren’t my strong suit, but what I gather from that folksy foreshadowing is that we will be in a tight spot.

However, that fowl-feeding, toothless future is already here. But then again, cockroaches shouldn’t attend fowl fete.

The government is betting the house on a perishable OFAC licence. Moreover, Washington hasalready indicated that fresh sanctions are under consideration following what the US considers tainted election results from the Venezuelan polls in July. Sanctions on the energy industry that were eased the year before were reportedly reinstated in April.

Grass, meet fighting elephants.

Given these conditions and the waning influence of the energy sector, many have called for aggressive economic diversification.

On the evidence, diversification simply hasn’t taken root. The question must be asked: Does the government lack the intellectual capacity to meaningfully develop non-oil sectors? Even if that were true – surely there’s no shortage of economic advisers to offer guidance – is this myopia a choice?

At any rate, chasing after diversification at this point will not spare us the ever-tightening austerity on the horizon. It’s an imperative that must be pursued for future generations; it’s already too late for us who are here now. The government, over the last nine years, made no strategic attempts to prioritise other avenues of growth to prepare the country for diminished energy revenues.

In agriculture there was the usual old talk, ribbon-cuttings and sporadic made-for-media land-deed ceremonies, but there has been no substantive evolution. Indeed, our food import bill is the highest it has ever been, at more than $7 billion.

Tourism limps along like an afterthought. Building more hotels without a more nuanced, updated approach to marketing and product development feels like the classic style of Trini governance – just pour more concrete.

At any rate, this country is now far too dangerous to be inviting large numbers of travellers here. The government has telegraphed unequivocally that nothing will be done to bridle violent crime. Rowley placed full confidence in his Minister of National Security and the Commissioner of Police, both of whom have failed comprehensively to produce results.

We’ve been here before – the rise and fall of energy fortunes are key chapters in our story.

Still, we haven’t learned anything from the volatility of the sector. The over-reliance on Dragon feels like the last of several final straws.