1.9 per cent GDP growth expected in 2024

TRINIDAD and Tobago is expected to register real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.9 per cent this year.

This information is contained in the Review of the Economy 2024 document which was laid in the House of Representatives on September 30.

The review said this growth is based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections that the global economy appears to be trending towards a "soft landing" this year after four years of turbulence triggered by "a devastating pandemic, deepening geo-economic fragmentation, surging inflation, and widespread monetary policy tightening."

The projected 1.9 per cent GDP growth follows on from 1.3 per cent growth last year.

The latter figure, according to the review, was indicative of the economy’s resilience, coupled with the combined efforts of the public and private sectors toward diversification.

This trajectory is expected to be maintained in 2024 with the non-energy sector expected to experience growth of 2.5 per cent and outweigh a 5.6 per cent decrease in the energy sector this year.

Year-on-year headline inflation, remained stable and below one per cent during the first eight months of this year.

The review said headline inflation recorded its lowest rate of 0.3 per cent in both January and July, before experiencing a slight increase to 0.4 per cent in August.

This reflected the movement in pricing pressures within both the food and core components of the All Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) during January to August.

Between January and March, there was a marked improvement of 123.1 percent in the productivity of all workers in all industries when compared to the 26.9 per cent expansion recorded in the same period in 2023.

The productivity gain in this period was attributed to improvements in the assembly type and related products, food processing, drink and tobacco, petrochemicals and natural gas refining industries.

In the first quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate increased to 5.4 per cent, compared to 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2023.

The size of the labour force fell by 10,100 persons during the first three months of this year, as a result of a marginal contraction of the labour force participation rate to 54.7 percent from 55.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Gross official reserves amounted to US$5,537.5 million, equivalent to 7.8 months of import cover, as at August 31, 2024.

The Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF), as of September 26, was estimated to have a Net Asset Value (NAV) of US$6,095.8 million in contrast to the NAV of US$5,390.2 million recorded as at September 30, 2023.

The review said this represents a gain of US$705.6 million "despite there being three withdrawals totalling US$369.95 million from the HSF during fiscal 2024, which were in accordance with Section 15 of the HSF Act (2007) with respect to fiscal year 2023."

There were no contributions to the HSF in fiscal 2024.