Maduro’s tragedy

Tragedy. This is described as “a serious accident, crime or natural catastrophe; a sad event or calamity,” usually preceded by happy, pleasant conditions. Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro once enjoyed some peace, safety and a large oil-reserved economy. His coming tragedy is not through “natural catastrophe.” He did, though, cause a “serious accident” with capitalism. Also accused of corruption, jailing opponents and stifling press freedom, his presidency is threatened all around.

Today he faces civil turmoil, international rejections and a collapsed economy. It’s a next-door tragedy with serious, heavy-weight implications. One of the most serious rushed down this week from Maduro-phobic US President Donald Trump. The socialism-averse former businessman threatened Venezuela’s military if its soldiers continue to support Maduro. Speaking last Monday at Florida International University, he threatened the military: “You will find no safe harbor, no easy exit and no way out. You will lose everything…All options are open.”

One senior military officer deserted three weeks ago. And given the craftiness and resources of the US, both formal and informal, green card and all, more will likely desert in the coming months. Maduro showed some testicular fortitude by telling his supporters: “Who is the commander of the armed forces, Donald Trump from Miami or me? They think they own this country.” Trump had told the strong Miami anti-Maduro audience that “a new day is coming in Latin America.”

For two weeks now, the US has been dropping tons of food (rice, meat, flour, baby food, drinks, etc) at the border between Venezuela and US-friendly Colombia. So too is Brazilian new right-winger President Jair Bolsonaro at his borders. Hungry bellies know no ideology. No political loyalty. And with the influential conservative grouping of Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Brazil not supportive of Maduro, it seems only a matter of time for the US-inspired collapse of the regime – with a list of unintended consequences and collateral damage, including guerrilla-type reprisals.

Or even if Maduro still retains substantial military support, the street-protests will grow in terror and bloodshed with continued internal strife. A tragedy one way or another.

The “consultation group” led by Mexico and Uruguay, including the European Union, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Caricom was doomed to fail from the start. It crashed in two directions. The political conditions in Venezuela and outside were just not right – not ready. Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley is now wiser, deciding to pull back from this terrifying Latin American imbroglio. In retrospect, though filled with good intentions, being “honest-broker” and all, this country and Caricom as a whole did not seem appropriately prepared with a “fit for purpose” understanding of the current and potential complications. And this is apart from the fact that quite early, Caricom itself was divided over support for Maduro.

Self-acclaimed “President” Juan Guaido sternly announced that he wants “no mediation.” He wants fresh, fair and free national elections. Maduro does not want that, especially given his narrow victory in the 2013 elections (two per cent margin). Worse for him, the opposition coalition won 112 of the 167 seats in the December 2015 parliamentary elections. He seems willing now to concede elections but not for the presidency.

In a history-breaking manoeuvre, the US, like the European Union, not only supports Guiado but calls for fresh elections. Maduro remains unmoved while his working class support decreases day by day – especially driven by the increase in foreign food supplies. The food supply has put Maduro in a tight spot. He stands to lose if he allows it in from the US, or if he refuses it. Apart from Trumps’ threat of military subterfuge, Maduro’s refusal to accept US and other foreign food supplies will eventually lead to the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Cash flow is diminishing, even from Russia and China. Grocery shelves getting emptier. Latin American support decreasing. Even soldiers have bellies and families. So while back-door food is coming, so too is high-tech entertaining for Venezuelans at the Colombian border (Cucuta). Billionaire Richard Branson said he expects a 300,000 crowd at his anti-Maduro charity concert last Friday, featuring some of the most popular artistes in Latin America. How much more pressure can Maduro take? His tragic end is near. But Venezuela’s will likely continue for some time, Dragon Deal or not.