Putin’s triumph

THREE YEARS ago, Vladimir Putin was a pariah. Having annexed Crimea and backed separatists in Donbas, the Russian dictator launched a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. His regime was sanctioned. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant.

But now, as the world this week observes the third anniversary of Mr Putin’s ordering of troops into a sovereign country on February 24, 2022, he stands poised to triumph. In fact, he has already, having been brought back into the fold. He has resumed his seat at negotiations without a single concession.

What has changed?

Donald Trump is back in the White House.

For months before its assault, Moscow denied it was planning to invade. It described US intelligence warnings as “hysteria,” said it was “a peaceful country” and did not “harbour any aggressive plans.” Days before tanks rolled in, Mr Putin said he hoped to resolve matters “by diplomatic means.”

All lies.

Because of Russia’s “special military operation,” at least 12,654 Ukrainian civilians are dead and 28,382 injured. It will take US$524 billion to reconstruct and recover over a decade, according to an estimate released on February 25 by Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the UN.

Mr Trump told his supporters he would end this devastating war in “24 hours” after taking the oath. How he planned to do so, he never said. His recent reversal of Joe Biden’s stance on Russia, through the dispatch of Marco Rubio to talks in Saudi Arabia, is not surprising.

But that does not make it any less appalling.

For the Republican leader, it is Ukraine that “started” the war.

Its elected leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who enjoys a 57 per cent approval rating – higher than Mr Trump’s 45 per cent – is a “dictator.” The US president is happy to ignore Mr Putin’s record of sham polls and embrace his 2022 claim that Russia was invading Ukraine in a process of “de-Nazification.”

The US gave Ukraine US$350 billion, the Republican also claimed. The disbursement was US$86.7 billion.

Even little TT supported a UN resolution on February 24 condemning Russia’s war, while Trump’s diplomats did not.

The EU this week assured it stands ready to defend its neighbour.

But Germany’s Friedrich Merz may have difficulty governing his new coalition. Similarly, France’s Emmanuel Macron has been weakened by a radical right-wing movement. Meanwhile, in the UK, Keir Starmer is funding defence through spending cuts, destined to be unpopular.

“There are decades where nothing happens,” Vladimir Lenin has sometimes been said to have remarked, “and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Three years in, the plight of Ukraine shows that, thanks to Mr Putin and Mr Trump, the world is a more dangerous place.