Geological job crisis or cycle?

RICARDO MITCHELL

US President Donald Trump is a disruptive force. Nations are either recoiling from his declarations or bracing for impact.

He has already signed over 54 executive orders in less than a month in office. The previous record was 42, and that was for the first 100 days in the White House.

The Geological Society of TT (GSTT) recently released the fourth episode of Energy Beginnings & Legends (EBL), its YouTube interview series reflecting on TT’s rich oil and gas history, as told by those who helped fashion it.

According to University of TT (UTT) research associate Dr Neal Alleyne, the first local independent oil and gas contractor Dr Krishna Persad, former state company senior manager Carol Telemaque and former energy minister turned international consultant Eric A Williams – geologists must prepare for certain uncertainties.

Job loss is a characteristic of the energy industry and oil is a globally traded commodity.

The boom-and-bust nature of oil and gas can be volatile and speculative, with a lasting impact on the international job market.

In energy-dependent economies like TT, partnerships and joint ventures can have fickle foundations in shifting geopolitical landscapes.

The US levies economic penalties and restrictions against countries it deems harmful to its well-being.

Any nation that desires to remain in good standing as an economic trading partner with the US cannot defy these sanctions.

The US government has imposed varying degrees of sanctions against Venezuela for almost 20 years now in response to perceived criminal, corrupt and antidemocratic practices by its authorities. The outcomes of both the Venezuelan and US elections in 2024 were of titanic significance to TT and our gas future.

Minister of Energy Stuart Young spent years finessing the Dragon gas deal and the politics involved are often overlooked.

To even discuss an energy partnership with Venezuela, TT had to ask the US for an exemption from the sanctions imposed and justify its importance to the local economy, regional stability and US interests.

The Democratic-led US had previously temporarily eased sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas and gold in exchange for the release of political prisoners and fair and free elections. Even then the US refused to acknowledge Nicolas Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela.

According to the current White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, the February release of six American detainees and Venezuela’s agreement to accept deportees is not an official acknowledgement of Maduro’s government.

Why would this matter to a geologist?

TT has continued to negotiate the Dragon gas deal with a Maduro-led Venezuela. Many nations challenged the election results and have taken a wait-and-see approach.

We cannot afford to do so, considering the decline in gas production and revenues, and our hopes of getting the first gas from Manatee in 2027.

Biden’s Democratic-led administration was considerably less direct than the Trump-led Republican government seems to be.

Days ago, on February 6, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio oversaw the seizure of a second Venezuela-owned plane in the Dominican Republic.

In January, Trump raised the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to US$25 million.

While it might just be the flexing of political muscle, it does not suggest that now is a good time for employees of TT 's oil and gas service companies to take out mortgages. If Trump pulls the plug or pauses Dragon, the TT economy will immediately feel the pinch as investment in business will further dwindle until the "polvo" (dust) settles.

This is not limited to our Venezuelan interests.

Under his "America first" agenda, Trump has already withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement. This means that once the withdrawal has taken effect, the US will no longer have to submit climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and obtaining climate finance gets more difficult.

If a global leader like the US withdraws, other nations are less likely to commit to the climate finance objective of generating US$1.3 trillion a year.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) stand to lose the most while having contributed the least to climate change and this is a devastating financial blow to their development and recovery plans.

We’ve already seen the shelving of several "green" projects by major international oil companies (IOCs).

BP had intended to scale back oil output by 40 per cent by 2030 (25 per cent as the goal was adjusted) and now appears to have altogether abandoned that objective pending the reveal of its new strategy. As of October 30, 2024, they have already shelved 18 early-stage hydrogen projects. While much of this personnel will be reassigned or reabsorbed, many will not, with the organisation having already hired replacements or lost income investing in these ventures.

IOC "renewables" assets are also being sold off as the US tone has shifted from "less oil, cleaner energy" to "drill baby, drill."

In some cases, there are mergers like the Japanese Jera Nex bp joint venture to manage offshore wind operations. These will either result in streamlining operations or lead to capped careers and voluntary departures or underutilised, dead-end developmental paths.

Map accuracy, data precision, potential success of a project and team track record of results do not matter as much once we accept that the foundations of IOCs are built not on bedrock, but on the active plate boundary between economic value and political will.

A five-year pause on a project is a mere political term, a research period within a multi-decade investment, a percentage of a bottom line to recover.

To the geoscientist, support staff, vendors, their families and communities, it can mean a seismic and devastating shift.

The GSTT EBL interviewees implored the modern geoscientist to keep learning and to explore their role beyond the immediacy of department or organisation.

"Seek knowledge that runs parallel to your path so switching lanes is easier. Integrate yourself into networks and extract opportunities from uncertainty. Read. Publish. Study. Invest. Explore. Connect. Geology is a world science, and we have a responsibility to expand our world experience," is the advice to young geologists.

Your value is as much in who you are as in what you know. Trump or not, things will continue to change and it is up to us to prepare to follow suit.

Ricardo Mitchell is an associate member of the GSTT. He creates long format digital content, designs logos, writes speeches and is a radio talk show host on WACK90.1fm’s The Living Room.