Navigating troubled waters under Trump: Trinidad and Tobago's foreign policy challenges

THE EDITOR: The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, with Marco Rubio as secretary of state, has reignited global tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela.

The recognition by the US of Edmundo González as Venezuela’s interim president and imposition of sweeping sanctions on entities engaging with Nicolás Maduro’s government could have profound repercussions for TT’s economy.

The government’s seemingly close relationship with the Maduro administration has placed the country in a precarious position. US sanctions targeting governments and companies that engage with Maduro could disrupt TT’s energy sector, financial transactions, and regional trade.

Given the interconnectedness of the Venezuelan and Trinidadian economies, particularly through agreements like the Dragon gas deal, the threat of sanctions could deter international investment, cripple critical partnerships, and exacerbate the nation’s economic challenges.

The potential economic fallout has repercussions for energy sector disruption, whereby the sanctions could affect Trinidad’s access to Venezuelan gas reserves and impede ongoing collaboration in the oil and gas industries.

This would undermine energy production and revenue, a cornerstone of the economy and a prospect on which the current Rowley administration (and by extension any Young administration) has hinged the future of the national economy.

The development has also caused severe trade and investment deterrence as companies operating in TT could face US tariffs or restrictions if they are perceived to have ties with sanctioned Venezuelan entities, making the country less attractive for foreign investment.

The development has significant potential to increase regional instability as sanctions tighten and there could be an influx of Venezuelan migrants, placing additional strain on TT’s social services and labour market.

The Rowley administration’s dismissal of alternative foreign policy strategies proposed by the opposition and characterised as “mischief” has, to the country’s current detriment, backfired. By aligning too closely with the Maduro regime, TT has alienated potential allies and risked its economic stability.

A more balanced approach, engaging both regional neighbours and the international community, over the last ten years in political office could have mitigated these risks.

Going forward, diplomatic outreach consisting of open dialogue with the US administration to clarify TT’s position and emphasising its neutrality is certainly an immediate strategy which needs to be implemented. The government also needs to highlight the humanitarian efforts made for Venezuelan refugees to demonstrate a commitment to regional stability.

Before the national elections are called this year, the current administration must also diversify its partnerships, engage with non-sanctioned international markets, and deepen ties with Caricom nations to reduce reliance on Venezuela and the US.

An immediate reassessment of energy agreements and a review of the terms of TT’s agreements with Venezuela to ensure compliance with international sanctions and minimise exposure must also occur.

In the medium term, TT's foreign policy must shift to a more multilateral engagement strategy where work must be undertaken through Caricom and the OAS to foster a regional solution to the Venezuelan crisis, emphasising dialogue and peaceful resolution.

Any prospective government for TT has to communicate a definitive economic diversification strategy which notably accelerates efforts to diversify the country’s economy, reducing reliance on energy exports and fostering growth in sectors like tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing.

Finally, both the new foreign affairs minister in a new cabinet as well as any new TT ambassador to the US have to have a mandate to strengthen bilateral relations and rebuild ties with the US and other global powers by demonstrating a commitment to democratic principles and strategic neutrality.

The current scenario presents significant challenges but it also offers an opportunity for TT to redefine its foreign policy strategy. By adopting a more pragmatic and balanced approach, the government, be it incumbent or aspirant, can and must navigate this crisis and safeguard the nation’s economic interests.

JASON BROOKS

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