Political analysts: Marginal seats, campaign strategies key to election win

AS political parties begin to screen candidates for the general election, political analysts are saying for any party to be successful, it must mobilise voters in marginal constituencies and implement and execute successful campaign strategies.

On September 1, UNC PRO Dr Kirk Meighoo said the UNC intends to win 25 seats by focusing on marginal constituencies, including San Fernando West, La Horquetta/Talparo and Tunapuna. The party's optimism is based on its performance in last August's local government elections, which ended in a 7-7 tie between the UNC and the PNM.

On September 2, the National Transformation Alliance (NTA) announced plans to field candidates in the same ten constituencies, with its leader Gary Griffith contesting the St Joseph seat. In its release, NTA says the remaining candidates will be announced by the end of September.

Despite a previous alliance, there have been tensions between the NTA and UNC.

Speaking with Newsday on September 3 by phone, political analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath said the primary focus of any party is to win, and marginal seats will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election when it is called.

Ragoonath said the NTA could affect election results, depending on its approach in the lead-up.

“While the NTA may not win the government, it could influence the margins and disrupt the opposition's plans.”

Asked about local election results as indicators for national elections, Ragoonath said local results are not a perfect predictor, but it provide valuable insights and a platform for campaign strategies, reiterating that a party's success hinges on its performance in marginal seats.

“Voter turnouts will be based on issues facing the country: crime, extortion, migration and the state of the economy. If people feel disillusioned and disenchanted and parties are not give them hope, they will stay home.”

Another political analyst, Dr Indira Rampersad, echoed the importance of marginal seats, saying Tunapuna and San Fernando West were particularly critical.

She said despite some areas being considered safe for certain parties, shifts in voter preferences and dissatisfaction with the handling of issues like crime could affect voter choices.

Rampersad said Moruga and San Juan/Barataria are also significant marginal seats.

“The PM is quite concerned about Moruga because of recent murders, and supporters are very irate with the government handling of crime. We saw the PM making statements with regard to the murders that have taken place there.”

On August 21, minimart owner Enrico Guerra and his five-year-old daughter Anika were gunned down at his business place on Moruga Main Road.

Around 11.34 pm on the same day, the Prime Minister took to Facebook to express his disgust over the killings.

Rampersad describes San Juan/Barataria, which is currently held by the UNC, as “another tricky one.”

“They are trying to wrestle marginals from each other.”

Rampersad stressed success in marginal seats will depend on effective strategising, including campaign strategies, candidate selection and election-day tactics.

Rampersad said success will depend on parties ability to mobilise voters, execute successful strategies and and address voters' concerns. She said local election results can provide some insight, a broader approach is needed.

Rampersad believes the UNC needs to do more campaigning north of the “Caroni Bank,” where its presence is limited. She said voters are concerned over issues such as crime, management of the country's economy and the cost of living.

She said for any party to win in its opponent's stronghold, there must be a significant “wave” factor that generates an increase in support of more than ten per cent, either from existing supporters of one party switching to the other or new voters coming on board.

“If the opposition can achieve a successful pre-election accommodation and post-election coalition, it may generate a wave factor needed to capture strongholds. It is challenging, but it is possible. The opposition in 1986 and 2010 won PNM strongholds.”

In the December 15, 1986 general election, the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR), led by ANR Robinson, won 33 of the 36 seats, defeating the PNM led by George Michael Chambers.

On May 24, 2010, elections were called two years earlier than required by law.

The UNC, led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, formed a coalition with the Congress of the People, led by Winston Dookeran, the Tobago Organisation of the People, led by Ashworth Jack, the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ), its leader David Abdulah and the National Joint Action Committee (NJAC) party led by Makandal Daaga.

They created the People’s Partnership and won a combined total of 29 seats. The PNM won 12.

The partnership won PNM strongholds: Lopinot/Bon Air West, Arima, D’Abadie/O’Meara. It also won marginal seats: Pointe-à-Pierre, La Horquetta/Talparo, Barataria/San Juan, San Fernando West, Tunapuna, St Joseph, Moruga/Tableland, Chaguanas East and Toco/Sangre Grande.