New year, same murder and mayhem

Paolo Kernahan

IT'S INCREDIBLE how, as a nation, we've eased into an omnipresent state of criminal siege like a comfortable pair of worn-in jeans.

This is, of course, untrue, but if we're going with perceptions over reality, then I can say anything I want. If on the first day of the new year the Commissioner of Police could claim credit for an infinitesimal reduction in crime for the previous year, then any number could play.

There were just 29 fewer murders at year's end compared with 2022, representing a five per cent "drop" in the murder toll. The commissioner attributed this so-called decrease to painstaking investigations and other measures.
As "other measures" without elaboration can mean absolutely anything and most likely nothing, we have to focus on the "painstaking investigations" bit.
How, exactly, do police investigations specifically prevent murders? Perhaps there's a pre-crime division in the TTPS; clairvoyant officers able to sense when and where a homicide is about to take place.

Additionally, the CoP noted that for years the homicide toll has been the barometer for crime in the country. Where did she get that from? While murders are the ultimate expression of violence, they aren't the only measure of crime.
Robberies and armed home invasions soared into the thousands last year, contributing to a broadly destabilised society riven by daily incursions into our lives.

The idea that homicides are the barometer for crime is quite convenient. Not everyone is affected by them.
Moreover, there's a detachment in society from gang-related killings. These are often interpreted as a balancing of the scales. This is a belief many comfort themselves with, but it's flawed.
That's where perceptions fail us again. All violent crime, even murderous gang conflicts, can only happen in an environment where law and order has collapsed.

The wider implications of unbridled violence are fairly obvious: innocent civilians are caught in the crossfire. Criminals are also emboldened by the impunity of their actions. Recent shootings at the Breakfast Shed, the Queen's Park Savannah and Ariapita Avenue prove this.

There are other worrying indicators of CoP Erla Harewood-Christopher's thought process contained in this: "While the reduction of five per cent can be considered small, if the converse were to be true and there was an increase of the same magnitude, there will be no hesitation in pronouncing an increase. Similarly, if there is a decrease of the same magnitude, we should likewise be unambiguous in acknowledging that decrease."

Well, it's not just about the decrease, but the attribution of that slight dip in deaths to police actions.
Should we then draw an inverse conclusion based on the fact that the homicide rate for the first month of 2024 is higher than that of the previous year? Is this increase down to the failings of the police?

The bottom line is, there is no real difference between murder statistics of 605 and 576. That's the problem with these public officials doing their numbers – they don't tell the whole story.

Traumatised citizens would happily accept stats showing increases in detection rates, arrests and convictions as a meaningful measure of police interventions.
These are the factors that contribute to a zero-tolerance policy on criminality – that's how murders and mayhem will gradually be reduced. It's not about "stopping" murders and other such time-travel antics. It's about fostering an environment that's broadly hostile to criminal behaviour.

On the evidence, the TTPS applies normal policing (below par to begin with) to a monster that outgrew its wicker enclosure many years ago.

Unsurprisingly, shortly after Harewood-Christopher claimed credit for reducing crime in 2023, violent crime exploded within the first few days of the new year. No amount of prayer or incantations can change that.

A flawed thought process on crime isn't exclusive to the office of the CoP. In one of many rambling press releases from the Government on crime, fleeting reference was made to the acquisition of vehicles for the police service.
For vehicles to be pushed in our faces as a crime-fighting measure is beyond dispiriting. The tools of the trade have little to do with policies and anti-crime strategies designed to quell violence among warring gangs, reduce robberies and break-ins, and improve the delivery of justice to keep repeat offenders off the streets.

Until this administration and its satellite bodies responsible for our protection do the hard work to break this siege, more of the same will prevail. You could spin those numbers in a centrifuge, but the truth of the streets will remain the same.