Is Dragon gas saga really over?

THE DEAL is done, but the saga of the Dragon gas project continues. The cast of characters remains the same: the Prime Minister, Nicolas Maduro and Joe Biden. None can say for sure if this cast will be the same in 2024.

Dr Rowley and Stuart Young, his energy minister, were buoyant and all smiles on Friday as they announced the granting of a licence by the Venezuelan president. But there remain substantial risks in this matter, for which an 18-kilometre pipeline will have to link the Dragon gas field in Venezuela with production facilities here.

The first is the outcome of elections in both Venezuela and the US next year; the second is Venezuela’s border dispute with Guyana; the third is the possibility of expropriation; the fourth is the climate crisis; the fifth is the contingent role of Shell. Any could pull the plug.

If other things remain equal, this pact will undoubtedly benefit Trinidad and Tobago commercially.

But this deal is not just a commercial one. Few endeavours in our region are of such geostrategic consequence. The prospect of revenue, made possible by a US sanctions carve-out, could well act as a carrot as opposed to a stick over the Maduro regime. The US hopes next year’s election will be free and fair.

However, if the elections are free and if the popular opposition figure María Corina Machado is elected, it is not clear what her stance on this project will be, though she is believed to be anti-chavismo. If the elections are determined not to be fair, it remains an open question whether US concerns about democracy will outweigh its economic and security interests.

Whether Mr Biden will be US President this time next year is also hard to divine. The possibility of Donald Trump’s return is alarming; it is also far from straightforward, a matter exacerbated last week by his shock removal from the election ballot in Colorado, yet another of his mounting trials. His stance on Venezuela was acerbic.

And we do not know what either figure might do if Maduro reneges on the Argyle Declaration, in which he committed to peace with Guyana yet repudiated the International Court of Justice.

The PM on Friday said this country’s stance is one of “non-intervention and non-interference.” Be that as it may, our actual shareholding in the project, as well as the expected start date from which we will benefit, is a murky issue. Shell is assumed to be onboard to shoulder much risk.

Meanwhile, though Venezuela granted a 30-year licence, the push to end fossil fuels might escalate at COP29 in Azerbaijan next year and then COP30 in Brazil. The deal is done, but what is coming down the pipeline is unclear.