Covid19 – things will get worse before they get even worse

THE WORLD reached a grim milestone recently – three million deaths caused by the pandemic. It's only human nature to be lulled into a false belief that through vaccine rollouts, with varying degrees of success, humanity was finally getting ahead of covid19.

This delusion is ably abetted by lockdown burnout. People the world over have been dropping their guard against coronavirus. Many fail to realise the choice of “freedom,” in some instances, is also the choice to die – and take others with you. It's a lesson strenuously resisted almost everywhere.

In India, the healthcare system is swamped by what officials describe as a tsunami, not a second wave. They've posted the highest global total for daily infections since the pandemic began – over 300,000 in 24 hours. Thousands are dying every day. Panic-stricken citizens are lining up to buy oxygen canisters as many hospitals are out of air and beds to comfort the deluge of the condemned. Massive religious gatherings and packed election rallies are being fingered for the latest nose-bleed uptick in the daily stats.

In Canada, while health authorities believe the administering of vaccines has suppressed deaths in recent weeks, that country is still deep in the woods. Canada's new case rate has, for the first time, overtaken that of the United States. Hospitalisations are up 29 per cent.

In the US the picture of daily infections is mixed from state to state, much like that nation's disjointed response to the pandemic. In a country riven by politics, Americans’ vituperative divisions have indelibly shaped covid19 outcomes. The nationwide average climbed ten per cent recently.

Officials at the Centers for Disease Control say the trick to heading off these rising numbers isn't more vaccinations, which will take weeks, but a return to some iteration of lockdown. A revival of restrictions will probably be greeted with the same enthusiasm as a witch-burning in some states.

Here at home, where we were among the first to shut our borders which remain closed, our performance against the virus is wobbly at best. With 157 total deaths and 81 new cases (as reported last week), this level of community spread seems at odds with the extreme measures applied to the threat.

In TT, our leadership against the virus is mostly typified by inactivity rather than proactivity – closing up shop, keeping borders closed, etc. The principal actors in the fight against covid19 are all rattling around in parts too demanding of them. Meanwhile, the public is too driven by politics to either admit or discern the shortcomings of those to whom they've sworn fealty.

As such, Trinis are more inclined to blame fellow citizens for rising infections rather than a failure of policy. This, notwithstanding the fact that human beings aren't inherently inclined to do the right or responsible thing. That's why societies are governed by laws, social mores and prescribed education to encourage appropriate behaviour.

Additionally, with soaring covid19 cases in Venezuela, it's difficult to avoid making the connection between illegal migrants and our own bleak outlook.

No one authority cares to offer a plausible explanation for the continued community spread in a country whose borders have been closed for more than a year now – or how the Brazilian variant could debut here if it didn't arrive with a plane ticket.

The prognosis for a pandemic-imprisoned world isn't rosy. There are an estimated 140 million confirmed cases worldwide. That figure has to be considered conservative. Deaths are also on the rise. Epidemiologists have warned that the only way to push this virus back is through a co-ordinated, unified approach across the globe to vaccinations and the universally known (but not accepted) recommendations for reducing the transmission of the virus. This consensus isn't happening, nor is it likely to.

Researchers also worry that amid lagging vaccine production, slow inoculation and lockdown fatigue new variants are cropping up in more countries. With each passing moment, the risk that available vaccines will offer no protection against these new, more virulent strains continues to grow.

In fact, in the US researchers are even talking about the idea of annual covid19 booster shots – like a regular flu jab.

For us here at home it's critical to consider that even with nationwide vaccination, which isn't likely until 2022, life won't change that much. We may be required to continue some measure of physical distancing, mask-wearing, and limited social interactions for some time to come. This pandemic will not go gently into that good night.