The dark at the end of the tunnel

TRYING TO rummage through the 2020-2021 budget for a tincture of foresight or progressive thought is largely wasted effort. Following the parliamentary discourse between opposition and government members to divine some spark of insight or way forward for the country is comparable to rifling through a hot dumpster.

Stabilisation was the priority for the Government during its previous term in office. Although, it can be argued a raft of blistering austerity measures (spending cuts and non-renewal of contracts, etc) coupled with considerable borrowings devoid of a guiding economic philosophy didn't have quite the stabilising effect we've been sold. What is most important for us is charting a clear path forward, one which leaves off from an enduring dependence on energy. This ought to have been aggressively pursued before the coronavirus ran down the clock.

Countries around the world are reeling from the economic impacts of covid19. Job losses, business closures, disrupted production and supply chains – whole industries are reckoning with an extinction-level event.

It doesn't help that the TT economy was already on the ropes before covid19 made quick work of our weakened defences with a devastating uppercut. The last thing we needed was lockdown and physical distancing to worsen a moribund economic climate. Yet here we are.

Central Bank Governor Alvin Hillaire recently described the TT economy as stable. He added the caveat, though, that several vulnerabilities could tip us into crisis. It's difficult to square that perspective with convulsions on the ground. The closure of the MovieTowne branch in Chaguanas and the associated job losses and disruptions to suppliers should be worrisome to everyone. This is, however, certainly not an isolated case. Business closures have been sweeping the country.

There are anecdotal reports of many citizens from different income brackets unable to meet their mortgage or debt commitments. Rents, both commercial and residential, started falling in response to declining demand and the inability of many to pay. It would be great if we had better data with which to build a reliable picture; something more definitive than counting cars in the mall parking lot or using the scarcity of shopping carts at PriceSmart as a barometer of economic peril or prosperity. Still, we work with what we've got.

Restaurant owners have given clues on the grave threats faced by the industry as the injunction against in-house dining persists. Many of these restaurants depend largely on butts in seats to meet costs and bring in profit. They will simply never do as much business on take-out because built into their cost, at least from the perspective of the customer, is the dining experience. Even if restrictions are eased, it's questionable whether economically battered or covid19 shell-shocked diners will be flocking back to restaurant tables in sustainable numbers.

The entertainment industry is wearing similarly-styled monkey pants – musicians, artistes, socasonians, DJs, comedians, sound system companies and others are still under lockdown in the absence of public gatherings, parties and other amusements. Those earning a living in commercialised carousing have probably not had substantial incomes since March, as was clearly demonstrated recently by the plight of broadcaster Errol Fabien. Additionally, there's no clear indication of when the entertainment sector can resume anything resembling normal. Some artistes may be able to transfer and monetise their talents online, but this is certainly not an option available to everyone.

Worse still, seething uncertainty breeds consumer conservatism. Spending slows as people are unsure of the future. Additionally, as household debt continues to mount, having grown about ten per cent since 2010, according to the Central Bank, buying patterns will continue to be restrained.

Going into the Christmas season with anaemic consumer appetites is less than ideal. For many businesses small and large, this is typically the most profitable quarter. It also allows them to fatten up for the slower opening months of the new year. The pandemic and ongoing restrictions are likely to further dampen traditional Christmas profligacy.

Then, of course, there's the considerable hole left by the absence of Carnival 2021. Not the hole in our hearts, but the foregoing of vast revenues from fetes, security, catering, alcohol sales, peripheral vending, transportation, costume sales, music licensing – the list stretches on. No virtual Carnival, whatever that may look like, can fill that hole.

Prevailing circumstances require a marshalling of all the intellectual resources we've got to push past the dark at the end of this tunnel. Finding renewal in the wreckage of our reality isn't impossible, but we need creative leadership to ferret out opportunities in the fog of the unknown.