Chambers: Positive business outlook for 2025

For the first time in a decade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found TT has undergone gradual and sustained economic recovery in 2024.

A press release from the IMF on June 5, 2024, said real GDP expanded by around 2.1 per cent in 2023 owing to developments in the non-energy sector, a decline in inflation and a drop in prices of global food and imported goods. With the World Bank estimating global economic growth of around 2.7 per cent, alongside modest expansions in trade and investment, the business landscape for 2025 is filled with promise.

Business Day spoke with various business chambers who gave their outlook for TT’s business sector in 2025

Deoraj Mahase, president of the Couva/Point Lisas Chamber of Commerce, said 2025 will be a year of change for the business landscape.

"From all observations, this will be a transitional year for the country with several changes set to take place locally and internationally, which will affect the economy."

He called for increased economic activity including private sector participation and foreign investment, supported by more innovative approaches.

"To assist growth and market expansion, there must be continued efforts to modernise the cargo clearance processes, online payments and business connectivity across the various governmental bodies to improve the ease of doing business.

"Additional support for businesses, especially SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises), is also needed to access potential export markets and earn foreign exchange."

SoE and crime

2024 saw a record high of 625 murders, and with a state of emergency (SoE) declared on December 30, concern within the business community is as strong as ever.

In response to the SoE three-month extension, the TT Chamber said it supports any measure that can help curb crime and contribute to solving this national problem.

"Crime does not have a single root cause. A more holistic approach is needed to address the complexities of crime, incorporating short-, medium- and long-term strategies. A comprehensive and multi-faceted strategy is essential to creating an environment where businesses and the public can feel safe and secure."

The chamber also addressed how the SoE could affect the country’s investment prospects.

"In terms of investor confidence, we recognise that the SoE may have created some apprehension among potential investors, particularly those who are newer market entrants or more risk-averse."

The chamber said it has been transparent with its investors, explaining that while the SoE is one of the measures in place to combat crime, it is only part of a broader strategy.

"We are hopeful that once the objectives of the SoE are achieved in tandem with other strategies, normalcy will return, and confidence in TT as an investment destination will be restored."

Mahase echoed some of the chamber's sentiments as he spoke about how the crime situation impacts businesses on a day-to-day basis.

"The crime situation has not only affected the operations of businesses but negatively impacted growth and development, shortened opening hours in some cases and reduced customers due to their fear for safety while moving about. Business owners, employees and customers alike are fearful of being out more than necessary and this continues to affect businesses at various levels."

In light of these effects, Kiran Singh, president of the Greater San Fernando Area Chamber of Commerce, expressed confidence in the solutions the SoE could bring.

"We certainly believe that it will subdue the criminals from committing their nefarious activities and that the police, together with the support of the army which is crucial during the SoE, will stamp down the criminal elements so we can live a safer, healthier lifestyle."

Martin George, president of the Tobago Chamber of Commerce said crime, especially in light of the 26 murders recorded in Tobago in 2024, remains the biggest issue in the tourism industry.

"Crime is the biggest issue and obstacle in the growth and development of Tobago. Part of the tourism product is saying that we are a safe, secure and serene destination and you can’t have that if you have escalated crimes and escalated murders."

Amid concerns that the declaration of the SoE will negatively affect tourism as TT approaches the Carnival season, George said, "Once a country announces an SoE there will always be concerns regionally and internationally. People would think that it may not be safe or it may not be wise to choose that country as a destination. So there’s always that fallout."

Tourism

As a Caribbean nation, tourism is a major product in TT's economy. George expressed optimism for the upcoming season with events such as the TT Music Festival, Tobago Heritage Festival, the Blue Food Festival and Tobago Carnival already planned.

"These events would definitely provide a boost to the tourism economy and there is definitely a great interest in many of these events."

However, George thinks more still needs to be done to boost the sector.

He said greater emphasis must be placed on trying to get more overseas visitors rather than just focusing on the local tourism market.

He also welcomed the construction of the new airport terminal in Tobago which will allow direct travel to the island.

"We also need to have some big brand name hotels coming to Tobago. This would help because we will be able to say that we have the quality and quantity of room stock on the island. That will bring the airlines and the passengers and then you can say that the airport terminal is justified because you have a large passenger flow coming through.

"The chamber knows there are discussions right now for an operator to take on the Magdalena hotel or for it to be sold. We are not sure what’s going to happen there but we definitely need lots of new investment in terms of building new hotels and accommodation facilities of some significant size."

In September 2024, while delivering the 2024/2025 budget in the House of Representatives, Finance Minister Colm Imbert said around $56.6 million was being spent to upgrade the Magdalena Grand Beach and Golf Resort in Lowlands, Tobago. He said the upgrades will ensure the hotel maintains its four-star rating and subsequently it will be offered for lease or sale.

Similarly, the TT Chamber called on local authorities to boost investor interest and confidence in TT's tourism products.

"The chamber recognises the vital role that tourism and Carnival play in the economic and cultural landscape of TT. With the Carnival season and increased cruise ship arrivals on the horizon, it is critical to address any potential concerns stemming from the SoE regarding the safety and security of visitors. We urge the relevant state agencies to work collaboratively to reassure both tourists and investors of the robust measures being implemented to ensure their safety."

Market expansion

Mahase said the chamber also plans to execute projects that provide opportunities and resources to its members.

This will include collaborating with various diplomatic missions such as the US, India, China and Mexico to establish and strengthen trade linkages.

The chamber also plans to host seminars with government and trade agencies to highlight potential export opportunities and market expansion. This will help address the ongoing forex woes and ease of doing business.

Similarly, the TT Manufacturers’ Association (TTMA) is continuing with its goal to double the value of local non-energy exports by 2025.

"The end of 2025 is the culminating year for the TTMA to lead the manufacturing sector," the association said in a statement.

"The association plans to invigorate its efforts in the coming year to be able to report at the end, it was done. The association will continue its focus on the SME sector to enable the sector to become forex earners via export."

The TTMA plans to lead trade missions regionally with a trade mission cruise set to dock in Puerto Rico, St Croix, St Thomas, St Maarten, Martinique, Barbados, Jamaica, Chile, Guyana and Suriname. International missions are also planned, taking the association and its members to China in October and New York in November.

"The TTMA continues to be the voice of the manufacturing sector leading the way toward diversification of the economy, earning much-needed foreign exchange for TT and championing the causes of the association’s membership to secure export markets and enhance the ease of doing business."

Manufacturing

According to the 2024 Review of the Economy, manufacturing output was projected to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2024, driven by a 9.1 per cent increase in the food, beverage and tobacco subsectors.

Increased output during 2016-2023 saw non-energy exports grow by 39 per cent, an equivalent of around $3.7 billion, moving export revenue from $9.6 billion to $13.3 billion.

The TTMA said significant gains in the exports of manufacturing subsectors experienced over this period highlight the strength and diversity of local manufacturing.

This growth has not gone unnoticed. Singh, "We did notice there was significant improvement (in the non-energy sector) within the last two years and we expect that that will continue to support the drive for net foreign exchange.

"That is a critical factor right now in terms of how we support the economy and the factors of production, labour, material costs and everything else that goes into ensuring that we have a finished product to provide to the public."

Mahase also expressed hope for the expansion of manufacturing.

"We are looking forward to further growth and development in the manufacturing sector, and vast improvements in the food and agricultural sector with government support. Continued review and adjustments of various trade and other legislation improvements in the tourism sector is also an expectation."