Ex-IIR head: Dragon deal can survive Trump term

THE Dragon field deal for TT to access natural gas from Venezuela can survive the ascent of Donald Trump as new US president, opined Institute of International Relations former head Dr Anthony Gonzales.

"We are not clear exactly how Trump will approach it. Remember Trump is a bit shifty, a bit mercurial, and changes positions a lot."

Gonzales recalled that Trump in his first term had spoken against Maduro and had advocated a policy of maxim pressure and sanctions.

"But he didn't stop us (TT) from having relations with Maduro. We continued to have diplomatic relations with Maduro and do business with Maduro, and he didn't touch us. The US ambassador here made a bit of noise but nobody took him on and we continued to do business."

Gonzales said it was not clear if Trump will now make changes.

"Remember that America has a lot of businesses in Venezuela still. Chevron is one. It has been allowed back into Venezuela to explore for oil and export this oil to US refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. They allowed Chevron to bypass the sanctions."

He said the US also allows a number of European companies to access Venezuelan oil to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian crude oil.

"The Venezuelan Government will tend to sell to China and Russia, so the US does not want to be left out.

"America may want to get rid of Maduro but they have interests."

He said Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves.

"They (US) are dealing with big companies like Shell which is involved in the Dragon gas." While Shell was originally Dutch-owned, he mulled its current shareholder composition and said multinationals have their ways of negotiating such things.

"Seeing they got a 30 year licence from the Venezuelan Government and started their seismic survey, and got a two year licence from OFAC (Office of Foreign Asset Control, of the US Treasury), when they are negotiating with Trump, he may be satisfied to just turn a blind eye." He noted Caribbean countries' reluctance to break with Venezuela due to how well they had been treated under Venezuela's PetroCaribe programme. Rather than action against every company doing business with Venezuela, Gonzales suspected Trump would make noises against Maduro as Biden has done, but do little.

"I am not sure he might want to really come down and make many changes to that.

"That is something we have to play by ear."

Gonzales said Trump was a businessman, whose outlook was similar to the title of his best-seller, The Art of the Deal. He said Trump might be content to just say Americans are making money in Venezuela. "I don't think Trump is all that concerned about democracy."

As evidence, he cited Trump's association with Russian President Vladimir Putin and South Korea leader Kim Jong Un, both viewed as strongmen.

Gonzales said countries like the USA have national interests. He said one must settle for reality, such as the reality that the Venezuelan military was today unlikely to get rid of Maduro. He said years ago in the Cold War, the US might have sent troops into a country but that has changed now, unless it was a situation as drastic as a country giving military bases to the Russians or the Chinese.