Attz: Trump presidency could impact Trinidad and Tobago in different ways

ECONOMIST Dr Marlene Attz said a Donald Trump presidency will likely have mixed effects on Trinidad and Tobago's economy – several positive and several negative – speaking to Newsday on November 6, the night after Trump's election victory.

Attz said different factors could affect TT variously at a national, regional and international level.

If Trump strengthens the US economy, Caribbean nations such as TT could benefit from a boost in their revenues from tourism and from remittances sent by their diaspora citizens in the US, she said.

However, Attz said if he imposes higher tariffs against Chinese exports into the US, this could raise prices globally to the detriment of the Caribbean including TT.

Also, if Trump keeps his stance against illegal immigration, many Caribbean nationals who may be in the USA illegally could find themselves deported and so reduce their countries' income from remittances, she said.

Attz said the Caribbean was likely to lose out on international funding for climate-change mitigation and adaptation, given Trump being a climate sceptic.

As an oil-and-gas producer, she said TT could be harmed by lower global energy prices at which to sell its exports in the likely event that Trump creates a flood of US shale oil and gas.

Regarding the health of TT's energy sector, she said Trump will have an energy agenda which will likely affect energy market dynamics.

"Changes in their policy mean shale oil and gas can affect global prices and have knock-on effects for us in the Caribbean."

If he floods the market with shale oil and shale gas, that could depress fuel prices, to the benefit of many Caribbean countries which are energy consumers but be not helpful for energy producers like TT.

"If he is able to calm things between Russia and Ukraine – because it is no secret he and President Putin are allies – that might have a calming effect (on oil prices).

"He is going to want to drill, drill, drill as he said on the campaign trail and that could create a surplus in the energy market that will bring down prices.

"We are in a space where we depend so heavily on the energy revenues that we will want to see some up-tick in the market."

Newsday asked how Trump was likely to view the Dragon gas deal for TT to access Venezuelan natural gas for which the US Treasury has allowed TT to be exempted from a ban on doing business with its neighbour which is under US sanctions for suspected election fraud.

Attz said, "Different US administrations have not been welcoming to Venezuela and have imposed sanctions, so it is going to be interesting to see what is President Trump's 'take' on diplomatic relations with Venezuela – whether he is going to impose further sanctions on them.

"If that is going to be his approach, what then will be his appetite for Venezuela engaging with neighbouring countries such as TT, which is where the Dragon gas comes into play? We have to look at what is happening there very carefully."

Newsday asked what the Prime Minister should be doing about the Dragon deal.

Attz said she imagined all risks to the deal would have been factored into the negotiations, even as she recalled the Government assuring Dragon was an air-tight deal "We do not know what was the agreement.

"We must wait to see the 'temperature' coming out of Washington DC with regard to Venezuela and any economic arrangement Venezuela has with its allies."

Attz said if Trump puts higher tariffs on Chinese exports that could raise certain retail prices globally including TT, but boost business productivity in the US.

"There is a lot to unpack," Attz said.

She said Caribbean countries may have to recalibrate their economies to cater for changes by Trump.