International relations expert: Trinidad and Tobago needs Kamala to win election

A victory in the November 5 US presidential election by Vice President Kamala Harris is better for Trinidad and Tobago than a win by Republican candidate Donald Trump, said Dr Anthony Gonzales, retired former head of the Institute of International Relations, UWI, St Augustine.

He predicted she would win, based on the latest information, his gut instinct and recent polls giving her a three-point lead in Iowa, a traditionally Republican state.
"I tend to think Kamala Harris would be in our interest. My gut feeling – and I have no evidence – is that Kamala Harris will win."

Gonzales viewed Trump as "his own worst enemy."

"Kamala Harris, I feel, is gaining ground closer to the election. People will make up their minds and realise Trump is a danger to their country."

He thought people supporting Trump were largely white supremacists and Christian nationalists.

"Kamala Harris is doing all right and is likely to pull it off.

"Women are coming out to support her. She will pull it off by two or three points."

He said she was doing well in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

"I tend to predict she will win."

Gonzales thought a Harris win would benefit TT, as opposed to a Trump victory.

He recalled Trump promising to levy new tariffs of 20-60 per cent on goods shipped to the US.

Gonzales also said Trump has anti-immigration policy, including threats of mass deportations and round-ups of people deemed illegal immigrants, who would be sent back to their home countries. Some people might have their residency status rescinded after a Trump win, he added.

A Trump win would not favour TT from a climate-change perspective, Gonzales argued.

"If he comes back, climate change is not going any where."

He said Trump had previously withdrawn the US from treaties that try to rein in climate threats, such as the Paris Agreement and the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UN Climate Change Conference.

Gonzales said climate change was a now proven fact, as manifested in wildfires, floods and hurricanes. Regarding Trump – who is a climate-change sceptic – Gonzales said, "We (TT) will suffer if he comes back."

He also feared Trump was a threat to democracy in the US. He said in his first term, Trump had been surrounded by people, including military figures, who had kept him in check, but this time if he wins he would be bringing in his own people into his administration.

Newsday asked if Trump would ruin the prospects of a TT/Venezuela Dragon gas deal – for which TT has an Office of Foreign National Asset Control (OFAC) licence as an exemption to US sanctions on Venezuela.

"He is hard to pinpoint."

Gonzales said President Joe Biden has allowed Chevron access to Venezuelan hydrocarbons which are shipped to the Gulf of Mexico.
"Donald Trump is mercurial. He changes a lot."

Saying the US wants US companies to access Venezuelan oil, just as Russian and Chinese firms now do, he said Trump has options, including deciding to work with Maduro, or to leave him alone. Gonzales said in his first term Trump had got some Caribbean nations to align themselves against Maduro-led Venezuela, (including Jamaica, but not TT).

Under his America First outlook, Trump would likely have a policy in isolationism, but also be balanced against US national interests.

On other foreign policy, he asked how  Trump would keep his promise to end the Russia/Ukraine war.

"Trump is hard to predict.

"Kamala Harris will continue what Joe Biden was doing."