Analysts: UNC/NTA alliance's August 14 impact uncertain

THE success of the Opposition UNC/ National Transformation Alliance (NTA) in the August 14 local government elections remains in question.

These were the views expressed by political analysts Derek Ramsamooj and Dr Bishnu Ragoonath on Monday, a week before the elections.

In June, the UNC and NTA formed an alliance to contest the elections. The former is contesting 110 districts while the latter is contesting 31.

Former UNC chairman Jack Warner, who is currently fighting extradition to the US to answer corruption charges related to his time as FIFA vice-president, joined the UNC/NTA coalition last month.

Ramsamooj said the UNC/NTA coalition "is not a truly reflective political coalition."

He cited the now defunct National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR), which comprised three distinct political parties, as an example.

In the case of the UNC/NTA, Ramsamooj said, "All of those three leaders (UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar, NTA leader Gary Griffith and Warner) orginated in some form or fashion from the UNC."

He added this was a case of "UNC blue, UNC yellow and UNC green."

Blue and green are the colours of the NTA and Warner's Independent Liberal Party (ILP) respectively.

Warner, who formed the ILP in 2013 after he left the UNC, said last month the ILP will be dissolved back into the UNC.

Ramsamooj said, "Unlike other political coalitions that each have a separate political entity, the basis of this agreement (between Persad-Bissessar, Griffith and Warner) is obviously singularly focused on removing (Dr) Keith Rowley as prime minister and preparing for the general election, whenever that may occur."

The next general election is constitutionally due in 2025.

Ramsamooj said people need to accept the UNC/NTA coalition for what it really is: in his view, "It is a false political coalition. It's the mergers of opportunism to remove the incumbent prime minister."

Ramsamooj predicted the results in the San Fernando City and Tunapuna/Piarco regional corporations on August 14 will determine whether the UNC/NTA coalition has a political future or not. Both corporations are controlled by the PNM at present.

Ramsamooj said if the UNC/NTA fails to make a dent in Tunapuna/Piarco or win San Fernando, "Then it's obvious that this coalition's campaign strategy has failed."

He also said the local government elections campaign had descended to a level of nastiness never seen in previous elections.

"The convergence of political issues is under public scrutiny."

Ramsamooj said an example of this is crime and Persad-Bissessar's "Kamla-matic politics" being introduced into the elections.

At a UNC meeting in Chaguanas on July 31, Persad-Bissessar said, "When the criminals invade your home, draw your licensed firearm and light them up! Empty the whole clip and reload too. Fight fire with fire!"

She made the comment in relation to a female home-owner shooting an intruder in her Chaguanas home.

Persad-Bissessar was unapologetic for that remark when she spoke at a UNC meeting in San Fernando on August 3.

"You have to load up your (auto) 'matic and then knock it on them again and again."

On August 4, the Council for Responsible Political Behaviour said Persad-Bissessar had breached the code of ethical conduct with her July 31 "light them up" comment.

The council also said the PM, Warner and UNC senator Anil Roberts breached the code through the use of inappropriate and insensitive language on separate occasions during the campaign.

Ramsamooj said some of these things "may not stimulate above-average voter turnout for local government elections."

Ragoonath said, "I can't say that it (UNC/NTA coalition) is having an impact."

He believed the UNC is trying to energise its traditional supporters, and added, "In a way, the NTA is giving critical support."

He was uncertain how critical that support might be to the coalition's success on August 14.

With the UNC's campaign centring on crime, Ragoonath said Griffith could be an asset, as a former police commissioner: "Gary Griffith himself has a strong following in terms of his anti-crime measures when he was police commissioner."

But again he added, "As it stands right now, I can't comment on how significant that impact would be."

At the UNC's August 3 San Fernando meeting, Griffith said a vote for the UNC was a vote for the NTA and vice versa.

He said the NTA's strategy was to attract all the non-traditional UNC supporters and add them to the UNC's traditional voters to help the coalition win the elections.