Between two dragons

THIS COUNTRY now finds itself wedged between two dragons. Not the harmless kind you see in traditional mas at Carnival, but the fire-breathing variety.

Donald Trump, 78, reigns to the north, Nicolás Maduro to the south.

It’s a dangerous place to be, necessitating a new foreign-policy paradigm.

That much is made clear by the Prime Minister’s statement on the future of the Dragon gas and Manakin-Cocuina projects at an energy conference on February 10.

“We will be seeking to engage and apprise the new US administration of the importance of these projects not only to TT but to the energy security of the region,” Dr Rowley disclosed.

Though the PM did not mention Mr Trump by name, he did not need to. Donald Trump is the US government; the US government is Donald Trump. It matters not who sits in his cabinet or who his top diplomat is. The first weeks of his second presidency confirmed this.

Our PM’s pitch to the former host of The Apprentice suggests the effort to persuade him to let gas flow from Venezuela will be to emphasise Caricom’s needs. At any other moment, that would be a good proposal.

Unfortunately, Mr Trump has already redrawn the map of US foreign policy in such a way that Dr Rowley’s approach seems to be wishful thinking.

The US president has shown no concern for assisting developing countries through foreign aid and even parts of his own country affected, like us, by climate change; has identified at least four separate territories he wishes to annex; has rejected the logic of economics through tariff wars; and has mandated the US to drill, baby, drill for supreme energy dominance. In his first term, he divided Caricom.

“Geopolitics can work for you or against you,” Dr Rowley, whose government laboured on many deals for the last decade, today notes.

That binary formulation, though, suggests 50-50 odds. However, the odds of the region's, far worse TT's, finding favour with Mr Trump are not even as high.

Even if Mr Trump remembers his time here in 1999 for Miss Universe, his strong animosity against the Maduro regime could prevail.

He might recognise that improving Venezuela’s economy is key to stemming its migrant crisis. Or not. He might seek to strong-arm Mr Maduro or encourage regime change. Or not.

It is not even certain if Dr Rowley, 75, will be there to see. He is passing the baton to Stuart Young, 50. Mr Young’s past with Venezuela could be held against him by an irascible US leader.

Meanwhile, if Kamla Persad-Bissessar, 72, returns to power, her gender alone might be enough to aggravate Mr Trump, notwithstanding her recent right-wing makeover.
TT needs other plans. And fast.