NACTA: Turnout key to election victory

VOTER turnout is critical to deciding which party wins Monday's local government elections.

While the UNC's supporters seem more energized than the PNM's supporters, the PNM has a stronger election day machinery than the UNC.

Should the PNM and UNC bring out the same base turnout of their respective political bases like in 2019, the PNM and UNC will each retain the seven corporations that they won in the 2019 local government elections.

But a higher UNC voter turnout could spell trouble for the PNM as would a lower turnout.

These were the findings of a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) tracking poll released on Saturday, one day before the elections.

NACTA reiterated, "Many traditional UNC supporters who were not interested in voting a month ago, now indicate they will vote."

A month ago, NACTA continues, only 30 per cent of the population expressed an interest in casting ballots, with a majority going for the UNC.

That turnout number has inched up with most who have changed their minds going to UNC.

NACTA said, "This could help the UNC in competitive marginal seats in the local authorities of Sangre Grande and San Fernando."

The PNM, NACTA continued, has no chance of capturing Chaguanas or Siparia although it could gain seats in both corporations.

NACTA said the PNM could lose seats in the Tunapuna/Piarco Regional Corporation, which it currently controls, if its voter turnout there is lower than in 2019.

The PNM could lose seats in Tunapuna if turnout of its base is lower than last time. Ordinarily, the PNM, which won a majority of seats since 1986 local government elections, would easily win more seats overall.

But in these elections, NACTA said, "The ethnic supporters of PNM are very discontented with their party with some 70 per cent telling interviewers of NACTA that they won’t vote."

In contrast, a higher percentage of UNC ethnic supporters, approaching 38 per cent, said they will vote.

NACTA said this places the UNC in an advantage to win the popular vote.

But while the PNM lost the popular votes in 2019, it won a majority of seats.

NACTA said the UNC's alliance with former UNC national security minister Gary Griffith's National Transformation Alliance (NTA) "has closed the gap with PNM in every seat except for a handful where the candidate makes a difference favouring the PNM."

So a low PNM turnout will result in a defeat in a marginal seat.

NACTA said, "There are a dozen of such seats making them very close to call. Minor parties are also polling votes."

The PNM has a better equipped and oiled election day machinery than the UNC. The challenge it faces is convincing its base to come out to vote.

The UNC base is energized and excited and may not require much vehicle resources to come out to cast ballots.

The latest findings thru Saturday show UNC retaining local authorities in its strongholds – some six of the seven it holds including in Siparia and Chaguanas.

PNM is projected to also retain six of the seven it holds. Sangre Grande and San Fernando are toss ups.

If PNM successfully brings out it base, it will retain San Fernando and tie 4-4 with the UNC in Sange Grande.

The UNC could win six or seven, or eight corporations, including the possibility of tying one.

PNM finds itself in the same position.

At a UNC meeting in Arima on Thursday, UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar declared that the PNM has already accepted that the UNC has won the elections.

"They have already thrown up their hands in the air and are accepting defeat on Monday."

Griffith said all the signs show the PNM supporters will not come out and vote on Monday.

"The PNM are on the ropes. They are back-pedalling."

He reiterated that a vote for the UNC is a vote for the NTA and vice-versa in all 141 local government districts.