Evacuations ordered as St Vincent's volcano set to blow

KINGSTOWN: An evacuation order was issued on Thursday afternoon for residents near St Vincent's La Soufriere volcano after scientists monitoring activities at the volcano warned of an imminent and violent eruption.

Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves announced the evacuation order about three hours after he held an emergency press conference together with Prof Richard Robertson, the lead scientist monitoring the volcano.

In making the evacuation order, the prime minister said Robertson had informed him that matters had deteriorated further at La Soufriere.

St Vincent’s National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) stated on its Facebook page on Thursday evening: “Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves issues evacuation order effective immediately. Safe areas are those from North Union to Kingstown, on the Windward side of the island, Barouallie to Kingstown on the Leeward side and the Grenadine Islands.”

At the press conference, held before the evacuation orders were given, Robertson warned that the volcano could erupt “explosively” in a matter of hours or days.

ERUPTION IMMINENT

Robertson said that heightened volcanic-tectonic (VT) earthquakes in March suggested that fresh magma was trying to get to the surface. He noted there was another swarm of these earthquakes about a week ago.

However, at about 3 am on Thursday, there was another significant change in seismicity, where the station closest to the volcano began recording low-level tremors, he said. Robertson, a geologist, explained that a tremor is essentially a continuous vibration of the ground.

Since about 3 am, there were a number of episodes lasting from 3-3.40 am, 5-6.20 am, 8-9 am and then again about 10.15 am on Thursday. Another band of tremors began around 1 pm, as Robertson was speaking during the press conference.

He said that there are now “banded tremors,” which are usually associated with magma moving to the surface. Another thing that the monitoring team noticed Thursday morning was elevated and continuous emission of gas. These gases have been sustained, which is another indication that fresh magma is coming through, Robertson said.

He said that the suggestion is that this magma is at or close to the surface and the possibility of the volcano moving to explosive eruption has increased significantly, based on the activity being seen.

However, given the data, the monitoring team is still unable to say when an explosive eruption might happen, Robertson said, adding that what is clear is that the volcano has “upped the ante.”

“We are now into a period where we will not be surprised if sometime in the future we have explosion or explosive activity,” he said.

Robertson also said, however, that his team would also not be surprised if the volcano continued to erupt effusively, as it has been doing for the last three months.

He emphasised that an explosive eruption can happen anytime now, adding that there could be more clear signals or an explosive eruption in the next few hours or days.

“The volcano has changed, it has given us a bit more signals,” he said, adding that the eruption began with effusion, then there were the VT earthquakes and now the tremors that are associated with steam being driven by magma.

He said that the possibility that the material now coming out of the volcano could have more energy is what increases the chances of an explosive eruption.

St Vincent’s NEMO director, Michelle Forbes, said her team had been in discussions, at Cabinet, with various agencies to heighten preparation in the event that an evacuation order is given.

She said disaster managers were preparing shelters, the response mechanism had been fully activated and that the national disaster management council would meet later on Thursday.

Forbes said arrangements should be put in place to move elderly people who need to move and NEMO was working with agencies of government and the private sector to have things in place in the event of an evacuation.

GOVERNMENTS ALERTED

PM Gonsalves said his government will follow the science and will continue to take the advice of Robertson and his team of scientists.

He said that Robertson had told the government that if the volcano erupts explosively, there might be a four-month period of evacuation.

Gonsalves said he has already been in contact with the prime ministers of Barbados, St Lucia and Antigua and Barbuda about the repatriation of an estimated 20,000 nationals of those country, who are living and working in St Vincent, should the need arise.

Health authorities were also urging people to get vaccinated against the covid19 virus, given that the island has community spread and the stringent entry measures being adopted by neighbouring Caribbean islands. Gonsalves said Barbados and St Lucia are willing to receive evacuees, but they will have to be vaccinated against covid19. His government has also been in contact with other friendly nations, including the US, Cuba, and Venezuela, to discuss possible assistance.

Royal Caribbean has said it could get to St Vincent by Wednesday night a cruise ship that could hold1,500 people, who would also have to be vaccinated before being allowed to occupy the vessel.

Next Monday’s scheduled reopening of school has been suspended until further notice.

St Vincent and the Grenadines has not seen volcanic activity since 1979. An eruption by La Soufriere in 1902 killed more than 1,000 people.