Political analyst: Main parties evenly matched – Campaign closes for THA election

WITH just hours to go before the polls open for Tobago House of Assembly (THA) election on January 12, political analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath says the two major parties in contention – the Tobago People’s Party (TPP) and the People’s National Movement (PNM) – appear to be evenly matched.

“I wouldn’t venture to say if there is a clear winner at this stage,” he told Newsday.

Ragoonath, chairman of the Council for Responsible Political Behaviour, said he began looking at the political meetings about two weeks ago.

He said while the PNM’s meetings appeared sparse in the early stages of the campaign, they picked up momentum over the past week.

Ragoonath added that the TPP always had a good momentum, which the party maintained throughout the campaign.

“While I would say that at the beginning of the campaign, the TPP was seemingly way ahead, the PNM has done a good bit of catching up and, in fact, the campaign has now heated up to a nice level where both sides are looking at trying to win the support of the Tobago electorate.”

The other parties in the running are the Innovative Democratic Alliance and the Unity of the People, led by Dr Denise Tsoiafatt Angus and Nickocy Phillips, respectively.

Ragoonath, who believes the voter turnout could hover around 60 per cent, said the campaign has generally been a good one, characterised mainly by allegations and refutations.

Among other things, the Farley Augustine-led TPP campaigned on its performance and delivery as well as the PNM’s perceived failure to change the development trajectory of Tobago during its 21 unbroken years in office. The party also unveiled a 20-year blueprint to develop the island.

The PNM, during its campaign, also revealed its Big Bold Red policy for taking Tobago forward.

The Tobago-arm of the party, led by Ancil Dennis, also revisited the controversial purchase of 12 ambulances for $18 million, criticised the defection of former Tobago West constituency chairman Keigon Denoon (now the TPP’s Buccoo/Mt Pleasant candidate), and argued the TPP did nothing to enhance the lives of Tobagonians over the past four years.

Dennis, a former chief secretary, is contesting the Buccoo/Mt Pleasant seat.

Ragoonath observed that the perceived strained relationship between Trinidad and Tobago and elements of racism were part of the campaign.

“From our perspective, there were some things that came out that we still have to deal with as a country and a society.

“There is still a lot of attack on Trinidad and Trinidad contractors and Trinidadians going to Tobago to campaign in Tobago. So there is that division that remains. We have to look at that.”

Ragoonath said mention was made about former Deputy THA chief secretary Hilton Sandy’s controversial “Calcutta ship” comment during the 2013 election campaign.

“I actually saw an ad with reference to the Calcutta ship.”

He said there also appeared to be a lack of respect for private property on the hustings.

“People were putting up their flags and banners without getting permission. And the question begged as to whether or not those things were the exuberance of party supporters as opposed to a party.”

No room for smaller parties

Ragoonath does not believe the smaller parties will have an impact in the election.

But Tsoiafatt Angus told Newsday the IDA is fully prepared and ready to govern with “a credible slate, a tested governing framework and a manifesto that goes beyond slogans and structural solutions.”

She said the IDA’s readiness is grounded in preparation, not rhetoric.

“Our campaign has been guided by a clear governing blueprint, Resetting Tobago Together, which sets out in detail how an IDA-led Tobago House of Assembly would operate from Day One, using the existing THA Act to decentralise power, redirect investment and stabilise the economy.”

Tsoiafatt Angus said Tobago is entering a period of serious economic uncertainty, which, she believes, is complicated by the geopolitical shifts and, more so, the controversy over Venezuela and the struggles between US and China.

“It would be foolish for us not to understand how this impacts our development and how we need to protect ourselves internally.”

She believes national austerity is already affecting households.

“Oil and gas revenues are unpredictable and Tobago can no longer rely on top-down transfers to secure its future. In this context, ‘pie-in-the-sky’ projects and speculative pipelines are not just unrealistic; they are dangerous. Our approach is therefore deliberately people-centred, community-driven and fiscally grounded.”

Competitve balance

Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce president Curtis Williams observed that the major parties are pulling out the stops to secure victory.

“There is a noticeable level of activity, energy, and engagement coming from all sides, which signals that the stakes are high and that Tobago’s future is very much at the forefront of the conversation,’ he told Newsday.

Like Ragoonath, Williams observed that the PNM’s campaign initially appeared quiet compared to others.

“But that changed quite rapidly. Over the past few weeks, there has been a clear escalation in their visibility and outreach, bringing a more competitive balance to the overall campaign landscape.”

He said Tobagonians have been paying attention to the meetings.

“People are listening closely, comparing plans and asking questions about delivery, not just promises.”

However, Williams said while the messaging from all of the parties seemed “ambitious and exciting, “the real test will be how these ideas translate into practical action that improves the everyday lives of Tobagonians and strengthens the island’s economy.”

He believes the electorate will be looking less at rhetoric and more at credibility, track record, and the ability to execute.

“Tobago needs leadership that can move beyond campaigning into clear, accountable governance once the election dust settles. “

Tobago Business Chamber chairman Martin George alluded to the long-term proposals outlined by the major parties. But he said execution has always been challenging.

“The ideas in their proposals look very good on paper and seem very promising, but that’s always the challenge with politicians. They are always very promising before elections. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating,” George said.

“After the election, in terms of the delivery on these promises and the implementation of these strategies, proposals, and the grandiose plans, that’s where they usually fall short.”

He said the Chamber was looking forward to the result with cautious optimism.

“But whoever wins, we are willing to work along with them to ensure there is a revival and a revitalisation of the business sector in Tobago.”

The chamber, George said, is hoping that the incoming THA would address decisively the issues plaguing the cargo ferry service.

“So we are hoping that is resolved and that this situation is given a permanent solution because we have asked repeatedly that there be this redundancy on the cargo ferry service, in that there must be a backup boat.”

“Basically, you cater for when a boat has to go on drydock or when the service contract ends because at the end of the day the practical reality is these things happen.”

George also called for a long-term solution to address the problems on the airbridge.

“We can’t be in the year 2026, and we are still having problems with flights between islands. It’s two islands and a 20-minute flight. It can’t be that difficult to solve.

“So we need to get these things sorted out so that we can really move forward progressively with the revitalisation of the business sector in Tobago.”

The Elections and Boundaries Commission said in a release on December 19 that a total of 42 candidates were registered to contest the election in 15 electoral districts.

The PNM and TPP are each fielding 15 candidates, while the IDA is contesting 11 seats. The UTP submitted one candidate.

The two main parties had closing rallies on January 10.