After Maduro extracted, Delcy upgraded in Caracas...Uncertain times for Trinidad and Tobago energy

THE early-morning "extraction" of a sleeping Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, by US Delta Force agents on January 3, has left several stakeholders in TT's energy sector bewildered as it marks a period of great uncertainty in terms of this country's next steps as it concerns dealing with its closest neighbour on the South American mainland.

Former energy minister and attorney Kevin Ramnarine told Business Day that nobody really knows what the historic change in that country could mean for the Dragon and Coucina-Manakin gas projects which are vital cogs in TT's energy machinery.

“I think the uncertainty around these projects is greater than it ever has been. Venezuela has around 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, a lot of which is located close to our (TT) waters.

"On the other hand, we have a protracted natural gas shortage, which has caused de-industrialisation and job losses…we have been engaged with Venezuela on issues of cross-border natural gas since the 1990s. We share three cross-border natural gas fields with Venezuela,” said Ramnarine who was the chairman of a committee formed by Government to assess the viability of resuming operations of the Petrotrin refinery which was shuttered by the then PNM government.

Trump moves in

Days after the capture of Maduro and his wife, and hours after they appeared before a New York judge on criminal charges, US President Trump announced the “turning over" of up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil by the interim Venezuelan authorities headed by interim President Delcy Rodriguez – Maduro's former right-hand woman.

“The oil will be sold at its market price and that money will be controlled by me, as President, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump said in a post on X on January 6.

He said, per instructions to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the barrels will be taken by storage ships and brought directly to US unloading docks. Reuters has reported that the barrels are worth around US$2 billion.

Shortly after, reports circulated that the US forces also intercepted an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil aboard a vessel bearing the Russian flag. Last known to be between Iceland and the British Isles, the ship was accused of breaking US sanctions by shipping Iranian oil. The BBC reported that the vessel is said to be empty.

Hours later, reports followed of two more oil tanker seizures amid the US’ crude export blockade.

Cross-border assets

Although at least 66 per cent of discovered gas in the Coucina-Manakin cross-border field does belong to TT and only 34 per cent to Venezuela, the same is not true for the other projects. Venezuela owns over 70 per cent of energy assets in the Loran-Manatee fields, and all of Dragon gas.

This, along with the Venezuelan government’s termination of all energy arrangements with TT in December, put even more pressure on the local market.

“It would be great if we could arrive at a win-win solution with Venezuela, but it is hard to see how that could happen given that no one knows how things will unfold in Venezuela. What is obvious is that while Maduro has been removed, the government he led remains in office," Ramnarine said.

"There is also the issue of the OFAC license and sanctions applied by the US. Again, we don't know at this moment what is going to happen there. The US government has also stressed the role of American oil companies in Venezuela's future.”

Ramnarine said it should be noted that companies operating these intersecting fields, like Shell and BP, are UK-based.

“...The foreign policy of a nation flows out of its national interests. Our national interests have always been pegged heavily to our energy sector.”

In a post on X on December 4, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said, “Dragon gas is the property of Venezuela. Whenever they choose a leader through free and fair democratic elections, that leader will make a decision on Dragon gas. TT does not covet Venezuelan property; we never have and we never will. We will work with what we possess and endeavour to build on it.”

On January 5, Touchstone published findings from drilling results from the central block onshore Carapal Ridge-3 development well, the first well drilled in the Carapal Ridge pool in 17 years. Drilling accumulated over 1,000 feet of net sand, mostly comprising oil and natural gas-bearing Herrera sand.

Touchstone said completion operations are underway with plans to tie in the central block natural gas processing facility in the first quarter of 2026. The well results also supported the potential for up to three additional Herrera development wells on the block.

Responding to this development, both Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal and Minister in the Energy Ministry Ernesto Kesar welcomed Touchstone's announcement.

A press release from the ministry on Wednesday said, the successful drilling supports Government’s thrust to bring much needed Natural Gas to market.

"The ministry looks forward to continued collaboration with Touchstone and other operators to develop and grow our energy sector for the benefit of the citizens of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago," the release said.

Chamber paying close attention

In a brief response to Business Day queries, TT Energy Chamber CEO Dr Thackwray "Dax" Driver said the importation of natural gas via pipelines from neighbouring countries – including Venezuela – is only one of six key issues to be addressed for the security and sustainability of the local gas industry.

He said other concerns include speeding up approvals processes, fiscal reform, investing in carbon footprint reduction, decreasing gas use in electricity generation and focusing on small and marginal gas field development – all of which are also on the chamber’s agenda and radar.

“Increased access to natural gas from either domestic or imported supplies is vital to the long-term future of the downstream gas industry that has delivered so much value for the people of TT over the decades.

“Venezuela represents the most obvious source of natural gas for imports to TT but advancing these plans has been challenging because of the geopolitical environment," Driver said.

He added that the chamber continues to monitor ongoing developments in Venezuela, and is hopeful that new opportunities to advance the potential projects to import gas and to develop cross-border fields will come to fruition in the near future.

Driver said Venezuela represents a potential market for energy service exports for TT, especially in the offshore sector.

“If there is a resurgence of oil and gas field activity in Venezuela, Trinidad could play the role as an energy services hub for offshore developments in the east of Venezuela.”