A 'topsy-turvy' year in Trinidad and Tobago's energy sector

JAVED RAZACK

THE YEAR 2025 was a topsy-turvy one for TT’s energy sector.

At the start of the year, one would not have expected we would be closer to Exxon drilling in Trinidad than to getting gas from Dragon; or that we might quicker see the refinery restart than have Nutrien’s plants on line again.

The 2026 budget is based on oil at US$73.25 per barrel (US$85 in 2025 and US$92.50 in 2024) and gas at US$4.52 per mmbtu (US$5 in 2025 and US$6 in 2024).

From January to June, crude oil plus condensate production averaged just over 52,000 barrels per day, while gas production was 2.5 bcf/d for the same period. There was actually a small increase in oil production from 2024 and a slight decrease in gas. These figures are from the Ministry of Energy's consolidated bulletins (which were not updated after June).

The positive on the upstream end is that several (small to medium) gas projects from BP, Shell, Perenco and EOG have come on line, are being developed or are in pre-FID (Cypre, Mento, Coconut, Ginger, Frangipani, Onyx, Kanikonna, Aphrodite).

These will all help to stave off the decline of other fields. The big one, Manatee, begins drilling in 2026 with production estimated to start end of 2027 or early 2028.

The bad news is that all Venezuelan gas projects have stalled (Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina) and even though it is still progressing, there is some speculation that Manatee could also be impacted by the US/V'zuela tensions.

Unfortunately, Calypso still has not reached FID and almost no one is talking about it. BP is rumoured to be taking over the project, but every year that passes, makes this project less and less feasible.

Exxon has also made a surprise entrance into TT, taking seven deepwater blocks and fast-tracking exploration to begin in Q1 2026. They have theorized that the Guyana petroleum system extends into our ultradeep and are keen on looking for oil here. This is a long-shot but Exxon has proven themselves as the best deepwater explorer in the world.

On the downstream end, the worst piece of news is that Nutrien shut down all plants in Trinidad due to a mixture of issues – contract negotiations with National Energy, gas availability and global competitiveness.

On the other hand, the new government is moving ahead to reopen Petrotrin’s refinery in phases. There has been a lot of doubt about whether this would be technically possible and economically feasible for investors, and so far, all indications are positive.

2026 will be a tough year for gas production and therefore forex availability.

Oil production remains stable but low. Several gas projects are going to materialise in 2027. Exploration will occur in 2026 onshore, offshore shallow water and deepwater, which is very much welcomed.

The elephant in the room of course, is what will happen between the US and Venezuela and how will this impact TT. Political pundits have been discussing every scenario ad nauseum.

For the energy sector, the ideal outcome is a Venezuela and USA that supports the production of the near and cross border gas fields via Trinidad. In addition, there is potential for flared gas production from onshore Venezuela coming to Trinidad.

Furthermore, the TT services sector would have massive opportunities in an open Venezuela. If unlocked, these opportunities with Venezuela would provide massive benefits to TT.

Bid Rounds & Upstream Acquisitions

* January – EOG and government signed two Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) for Blocks NCMA 4(a) and Lower Reverse L. These awards came out of the 2023/2024 Shallow Water Bid Round. EOG contracted TGS to acquire 3D seismic data for these blocks in 2025.

* May – Touchstone closed their acquisition of Shell’s Central Block interests. The sale was in cash (approximately $28.4 million). Central block is now operated by Touchstone (65 per cent) with Heritage controlling the remaining 35%. The block includes 4 producing natural gas wells and a gas processing facility. Production in 2025 was approximately 16 mmscf/d with 180 bbl/d of condensate.

* July – Perenco acquired all Woodside production assets in TT (300mmscf/d of gas and 1600 bbl of oil per day). This includes interests and operatorship of east coast blocks 2(c) and 3(a) which has the Angostura and Ruby fields.

All associated platforms, facilities and the onshore terminal at Galeota have been sold to Perenco. This followed Perenco’s acquisition of BP’s CAFI assets in 2024. These deals have placed Perenco as the country’s 2nd largest hydrocarbon producer (on a boe basis), followed by Shell then EOG.

* August – ExxonMobil expressed interest to the TT government about 7 ultra deepwater blocks (TTDAA 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23) reportedly in December 2024. These blocks had not been nominated during the 2025 deepwater bid round.

Discussions and negotiations were fast tracked by the new TT government and Exxon signed a PSC for TTUD1, an amalgamation of the 7 blocks, in August 2025.

The new block forms the easternmost extent of TT’s waters. To the north and east of the block lies Barbados’ acreage, and to the south lies Guyana’s acreage. Keep in mind that Venezuela’s claim to Guyana’s Essequibo region also includes the marine area to the south of this block.

Exxon and the TT government have disclosed that seismic acquisition is being fast tracked to begin in February 2026 and that the first exploration well may be drilled by or before 2028.

* September – MEEI officially closed the 2025 Deep Water Competitive Bidding Round. 4 bids were received from 2 bidders – China’s state owned CNOOC bid on TTDAA 24, 25 and 30 while a brand-new consortium from Nigeria (STIT Energy Ltd and Groundports Ltd) bid for TTDAA 5.

Recall that block 5 was previously held by BHP and Shell, who drilled 3 wells (Le Clerc-1, Victoria-1, Concepcion-1) which made sub-commercial gas discoveries. Shell later relinquished the block. The blocks have not been awarded yet as the Ministry’s evaluation is ongoing.

General Upstream Updates

* May – EOG announced an oil discovery at the Beryl well in TSP deep. It is located in about 170 ft of water depth and hit 125-plus ft of high-quality oil-bearing net pay. EOG and BP partnered on this well and are working towards an FID. Initial estimates suggest that this could achieve first oil before 2029.

* May – Heritage announced that its new rig, Enterprise Offshore Drilling’s Rig 264, had arrived in Trinidad and will begin drilling in East Soldado. This rig replaces Well Service Rig 110 that collapsed last December. Heritage expects to increase offshore oil production by 2000 bbl/d by the end of 2025.

* July – Heritage - Minister Moonilal spoke about the decline in oil production since 2015. In 2015, onshore production from Petrotrin was 21,387 bbl/d and was just under 10,000 bbl/d in 2025. During the same period, the lease out, farm-out and other onshore producers had a small increase in oil production. He added that Heritage will drill several deep onshore exploration wells over the next 3 years.

* August – Onshore, Renaissance Energy Ltd announced the successful completion of its drilling campaign in the Wilson Sands formation, with all 3 wells delivering commercial hydrocarbons.

* September - Predator Oil & Gas has completed the acquisition of Challenger Energy (CEG) Group's operations in TT. This includes 3 onshore producing fields: Goudron, Inniss-Trinity, and Icacos.

* October – De Novo Energy was renamed Proman Energy, reflecting their parent company. They currently produce gas from 4 wells in the only gas fields on Trinidad’s west coast – Iguana and Zandolie. 1 development well is expected to be drilled in 2026.

* November – Almost a year ago, Well Services Rig 110 was drilling offshore for Heritage when it collapsed, killing employee Pete Phillip. Well Services said that salvage operations was about to begin and would include recovery of Phillip’s body.

* December – Touchstone began development drilling in the onshore Central Block (acquired from Shell), for the first time in almost 20 years with the Carapal Ridge-3 well.

Touchstone has forecast that gas production from the Central Block could exceed 50 mmscf/d. Current production is 16 mmscf/d.

* December – EOG received CEC’s from the EMA for the drilling of two exploration wells TG1 and TG2 in Block NCMA 4(a), which was awarded earlier in 2025. These will be drilled in 2026.

New Gas Projects

* Dragon – The saga continued in 2025, moving from full speed ahead to dead stop. At the end of 2024, seismic and geotechnical surveys at Dragon had been started by Shell. These were forced to wind up by May 2025, as the OFAC licence from the USA was not being renewed.

In October, we got back the OFAC licence but by then Venezuela had cancelled their gas agreements with TT, on the backs of the US blockade off the coast. In the interim, Shell has enough data to plan the engineering for drilling production wells and laying the pipeline for Dragon.

If and when the project re-materialises, the technical design should already be in place.

* Manakin-Cocuina – this cross-border gas field, operated by BP, suffered the same fate as Dragon for the same reasons. They had acquired seismic data in 2024 and in the interim, should be able to use that to plan the field development if and when the project becomes a reality again.

* Calypso – Unfortunately, very little is being said in public about this super-critical gas project. Discovered by BHP, it changed hands to Woodside, who operates the blocks along with BP (70 per cent and 30 per cent respectively).

No FID has been announced despite rumours that they were getting close. BP is reportedly seeking to become the operator (which makes sense as Woodside has sold all its other TT assets to Perenco and they are likely trying to offload this as well).

BP’s shareholding in Atlantic may make the project commercially feasible. In December, another potential wrinkle may have come in the form of BP global’s new CEO – Meg O’Neill – former CEO of Woodside.

She should be well familiar with Calypso, and would have turned this down for Woodside, so it will be interesting to see if she takes it forward with BP.

Again, this is the only large, discovered gas field totally within TT waters that has not been produced, and is essential to keep the gas industry going. Even when approved it will take at least seven years to get online. Initial estimates indicate peak production of 700 mmsfc/d which is more than 25 per cent of our existing total.

* Manatee – This is the only new large gas project that is going ahead – unless the announcement in December, that Venezuela has cut all gas agreements with TT, affects Manatee.

Nobody seems to be sure if it does, as Loran and Manatee were de-linked in 2019 to be developed independently up to the agreed limits of each field. However, logic says that Venezuela must be able to monitor gas production from the TT side to ensure we don’t produce from the Loran side. Officially, Manatee continues as planned for now.

Shell will produce 2.7 tcf of gas from Manatee with 8 wells. Drilling will begin in 2026 with a Valaris rig. Pipeline construction is ongoing by McDermott (115km, 32in line). Meanwhile, TOFCO is building Manatee’s jacket – the largest to ever be built in T&T.

The project is slated to begin production in late 2027, although analysts suggest it may be 2028 due to delays in the project. Over 600 mmscf/d is expected at peak, which is almost 25 per cent of the country’s current gas production. Minister Moonilal had announced in July that he was talking to Shell about “Manatee Plus,” which could be ten per cent higher production than planned. If correct, this will put the peak closer to 700 mmscf/d.

Manatee will be the biggest local gas project in many years and one of the largest for Shell globally. Manatee will reportedly cost over US$2 billion.

* Cypre – First gas from Phase 1 was delivered by BP in April, ahead of schedule. In November, BP said that Phase 2 had been completed. The MEEI said that this was originally expected in 2026.

The Cypre development is made up of seven wells tied back into BP’s Juniper platform. At peak, Cypre is projected to deliver approximately 250 mmscf/d. This is BP’s 3rd subsea development.

* Mento – in May, EOG and BP announced first gas from the Mento development. Mento is a 50/50 project between the companies, with EOG as operator. Mento is supposed to produce at 250 – 300 mmscf/d at peak. Peak production has not been achieved in 2025.

* Ginger – In March, BP announced that Ginger has reached FID. Ginger will become BP’s 4th subsea project and will include 4 subsea wells tied back to BP’s existing Mahogany B platform. First gas from the project is expected in 2027 and is expected to peak at 350 mmscf/d.

* Frangipani – BP also announced in March that their Frangipani exploration well was a success and that development will be fast-tracked. Production and timeline are not publicly known.

* Coconut – there have been no public updates on this project in 2025 from EOG and BP. First gas is still expected in 2027.

* Blackjack/Aphrodite – in June, Shell revealed FID on Aphrodite, otherwise known as Blackjack, which was discovered only in 2022. This is expected to be drilled in 2026 with first gas in 2027 and peak production of 100 mmscf/d. This small project involves a single production well tied back to the Dolphin platform.

* Kanikonna – This is a BP gas project that they are expecting FID on in 2026. Expected production is not known.

* Onyx is a gas field in the TSP acreage that has been undeveloped for over 20 years. Perenco drilled an appraisal well and sidetrack and announced in May that it encountered significant gas in two compartments. Volumes, production and timelines have not been disclosed but it is expected this will arrive at FID in 2026.

What of Grenada,

Guyana & Suriname?

Just after the April 28 election, the new government spoke a lot about the opportunity to produce gas which was found in Grenada in 2017. The Nutmeg well was the only one drilled and no appraisal had been done to determine its size.

In June, the TT ministers of energy met with representatives of the operator, GPG (a Russian company). The intention to facilitate production through Trinidad was clearly stated, but no details from GPG or Grenada on the development have been disclosed.

This is an exciting possibility, but is currently out of our hands to progress further.

Guyana – This country is now the highest oil producer per capita in the world with over 900,000 bbl/d.

Exxon has 4 FPSOs online and several more in the pipeline. They have completed new bid rounds that will see exploration from companies like Total Energies, Qatar Energy, CNOOC, Petronas and new operators like Cybele Energy. Chevron’s takeover of Hess also puts the super major squarely into Guyana.

Suriname – Total will begin development drilling for its first offshore project in 2026. GranMorgu is a deepwater development with a 10 billion USD price tag and will produce 220,000 bbl/d from 2028.

Petronas also announced commerciality of its Sloanea gas field. There is exploration ongoing by Chevron, Shell, Petronas and others who have secured new blocks. And at the end of 2025, Suriname opened another bid round, putting out the majority of their unlicensed acreage.

Downstream Activity

* October – Nutrien announced the shutting down of its four ammonia and one urea plants and sending home 600 workers. A public exchange of words ensued between the ministry and Nutrien over the cause, which was allegedly not only continuing challenges with gas supply, but also an impasse over port fees with National Energy.

Discussions between all parties were ongoing up to December, but up to time of publication, there had been no decision on a restart.

An unexpected consequence of Nutrien’s shutdown was that there was now no CO2 supply to Massy Gas and therefore to the beverage and manufacturing sector. This would have meant a total shut down of all domestic soft drinks, beer and other carbonated products.

Fortunately, an alternative CO2 source was very quickly put in place from Proman (at the same price from Nutrien), and a potential manufacturing crisis was avoided.

* November – The US government removed 15 per cent tariffs on imported fertiliser from a number of countries, including TT.

Proman’s managing director is quoted as saying, “I would like to thank the government of Trinidad and Tobago for its proactive engagement and advocacy efforts on this issue. We look forward to continued collaboration with the Government, our US partners and industry stakeholders as we seek to address further barriers to trade, including the tariffs imposed on methanol and ammonia, to ensure the long-term resilience, sustainability, and global competitiveness of the sector.”

* November – During the election, a major stated goal of the then opposition now UNC government, was to reopen the (Petrotrin) refinery, which was closed at the end of 2018. A Refinery Reactivation Committee, headed by former energy minister Kevin Ramnarine, was established shortly after the election.

A report from the committee was handed over to the minister of energy and to the prime minister in November. While no restart has been officially announced, it is rumoured that a phased restart is technically feasible and financing is the major hurdle to overcome.

It is expected that in Q1 2026, financing (for at least Phase I) will be in place and official timelines will be disclosed to the public.

New Energy developments

* Solar – In July, BP announced that the long-awaited Brechin Castle Solar farm achieved first electrons (equivalent of first oil or gas). This is the country’s first utility scale solar farm.

The BP statement said, “first electrons were transmitted from the southern segment of the Brechin Castle Solar farm, which will be gradually ramped up to deliver up to ~40 megawatts (ac) of power to T&TEC.

Work will continue toward achieving mechanical completion on the northern segment before fully commissioning the site in 4Q 2025. Once fully commissioned, the solar farm will have the capacity to deliver up to 92 megawatts (ac) of power into the national electricity grid. It will provide approximately eight per cent of TT's power generation, allowing natural gas to be redirected to other downstream users.”

Note that the shareholders of the solar farm are BP (35 per cent), Shell (35 per cent) and NGC (30 per cent).

After this announcement in July however, there were no further updates and it is not known if full commissioning has occurred, or what the current electricity supply is.

This project comes out of a 2017 competitive tender from the MEEI, where the only awardee was the consortium of BP and Shell. NGC later farmed in.

The project was supposed to have two sites, one in Trincity and one in Brechin Castle. The Trincity plan was dropped in 2023 for what was reportedly land access issues.

* Hydrogen – The MEEI and National Energy (NE) won an award for Best Government Initiative at the 2025 Hydrogen Latin America and Caribbean (H2LAC) Industry Awards in Brazil.

This is the first green hydrogen pilot project in the Caribbean and is expected to be completed in Q1 2027. The project, according to NE, is a key milestone in the Roadmap for a Green Hydrogen Economy in TT and will see the integration of green hydrogen into the country’s petrochemical industry.

* Wind – In July, Minister Moonilal said that the ongoing onshore Wind Resource Assessment Program (WRAP) was being expanded to add wind measurement devices at Los Iros/Santa Flora and Toco/Manzanilla.

The ministry launched the onshore WRAP at two sites in November 2024, in Orange Valley and Galeota. Two LiDARs were deployed to measure wind data to international standards for a period of 12-18 months. He also added that the MEEI will being issuing an RFP for an offshore WRAP.

General election and state company changes

A new government was elected at the end of April. The Energy Minister is Dr Roodal Moonilal, and minister in that ministry is Ernesto Kesar.

There are several state companies falling under their ambit – namely NGC, Heritage Petroleum, Paria Fuel, Guaracara (which holds the refinery), NP, TGU, National Quarries and Lake Asphalt. NGC has a few entities under its umbrella, including National Energy, PPGPL, NGC Green and LABIDCO.

As is customary, the boards of these companies are usually changed after a new government comes into power. However, there has been some controversy about some board changes as well as the exit of several executives.

Following the election, Joseph Khan resigned as NGC chairman and Randy Ramadharsingh was appointed; he was replaced within a month by Gerald Ramdeen – for reasons still not known.

In September, Verlier Quan-Vie, NGC’s VP of Commercial, resigned. In November, new NGC board member Ahmad Khan had his appointment revoked. In July, Erik Keskula resigned as Heritage CEO and was replaced by Kerry Rampersad.

In September, NE president Vernon Paltoo proceeded on pre-retirement leave and Marcia Maynard assumed the role of acting president. In November, PPGPL president Dominic Rampersad proceeded on pre-retirement leave.

The departure of several long-standing executives raised a lot of eyebrows amid speculation they were forced out. What we do know is that the aforementioned companies are critical to the energy sector and need strong and capable leadership.

We wish the new boards and executives the best of luck as they navigate our complex energy industry.

The Geological Society of Trinidad and Tobago (GSTT) is a professional and technical organisation for geologists, other scientists, managers, and other individuals engaged in the fields of hydrocarbon exploration, academia, volcanology, seismology, earthquake engineering, environmental geology, geological engineering and the exploration and development of non-petroleum mineral resources. It was formed in 1976.

THE YEAR 2025 was a topsy-turvy one for TT’s energy sector.

At the start of the year, one would not have expected we would be closer to Exxon drilling in Trinidad than to getting gas from Dragon; or that we might quicker see the refinery restart than have Nutrien’s plants on line again.