Met Service: Expect a wet start for 2026 dry season

THE Meteorological Service said citizens can expect near-normal to above normal rainfall and warm temperatures for December and the 2026 dry season. It said there is moderate flood potential for December.

Speaking during the service’s 2026 dry season – 19th national climate outlook forum at the TT Civil Aviation Authority (TTCAA) Training Centre, Caroni North Bank Road, Piarco, on December 9, acting chief climatologist Kaidar Kissoon said a weak La Niña developed in October and is expected to positively influence rainfall occurrences over TT during the first half of the dry season (January-March).

He said warm sea surface temperatures (SST) exist east of TT and into the tropical Atlantic ocean and is expected to provide the moisture for cloud development during the dry season months (January-May).

Kissoon said the December-February 2026 rainfall outlook indicates near normal conditions could occur across TT, most of which would happen in December 2025 and January 2026.

He said there was a 56-76 per cent probability of above normal rainfall amounts over most areas between January-March, with most of the observable dryness in the later half of March. He said there will be near normal amounts of rainfall between March-May.

Kissoon said the dry season was likely to get between 84-124 per cent of average seasonal rainfall. He said the country could get 97 dry days (less than 1.0 mm of rainfall) during the season, which is below the average of 108 dry days.

He said TT usually receives three-eight seven-day dry spells and one-five ten-day dry spells in the dry season. He said in 2026, there is a 57 per cent probability for five seven-day dry spells and a 53 per cent probability for three ten-day dry spells.

Kissoon said during the 2026 dry season, the accumulated rainfall totals are likely to be the highest in northern and eastern areas in the vicinity of Valencia, North Oropouche and Sangre Grande in Trinidad and Charlotteville, Speyside, Roxborough and Glamorgan in Tobago, where the totals could range between 540 mm and 769 mm.

He said the lowest accumulated rainfall totals are likely to be in the northwestern parts of Trinidad, such as St Joseph, San Juan, Port of Spain, Diego Martin and Claxton Bay, and southwestern Tobago such as Scarborough, Mason Hall, Crown Point and Plymouth where totals are expected around 266 mm.

Kissoon said there was a low to high probability (18-89 per cent) that the national average of 412 mm will be surpassed. He said areas in eastern Trinidad and central Tobago have the highest probability of exceeding the national average, while small areas in northwest Trinidad and southwest Tobago have lowest probabilities of surpassing the national average.

Turning to temperature, he said both daytime and night temperatures are likely to be above normal over both islands. He said the greatest odds for warmer than average nights and days are over cities, urban and build up areas.

He said there was a moderate (40 per cent) chance for short duration warm spells during the month of May with maximum temperatures averaging around 33.5 degrees Celsius in Trinidad and 32.5 degrees Celsius in Tobago.

Kissoon said the outlook indicates that above normal seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are likely, but at least three-seven cool nights when temperatures can fall below 20 degrees Celsius in Trinidad and 22 degrees Celsius in Tobago are possible in January and February 2026.

He said recent rainfall events during December have already positively influenced surface water flows, river levels, reservoir and groundwater recharge. The expected wetter than usual conditions in the first half of the dry season will positively affect surface and groundwater recharge rates and stream flow rates.

Kissoon said initial wetter than usual conditions and warmer than usual conditions in the beginning of the dry season may lead to an increase in breeding areas for insect vectors such as mosquitoes.

He said the earlier part of the dry season is expected to be wetter than usual and will likely decrease bush, forest and landfill fire potential. This will likely improve air quality and positively affect persons with existing respiratory and other ailments. The latter half of the dry season is expected to be dry as normal, therefore, the probability of bush, forest and landfill fires potential is likely to increase.

Kissoon said there were several actions the public could take to prepare for the dry season. These included reviewing the household water plan and conserving, storing and managing water safely and adequately.

He said government agencies could also sensitise vulnerable communities on negative impacts of the forecast and actions to be taken; raise awareness on dry season agriculture, pest and disease control measures and bush fires risk; ramp up contingency plans to mitigate the possible occurrence of landfill fires; and review contingency plans to manage dry season spikes in vector borne diseases such as gastroenteritis and leptospirosis, and dust/smoke related respiratory ailments.