Unlocking Trinidad and Tobago’s next-generation economy

VASHTI G GUYADEEN

As Trinidad and Tobago prepares to enter Fiscal 2025/2026, the country faces a defining moment.

More than a decade of uneven recovery since the collapse of global energy prices in 2014 has revealed the risks of relying so heavily on oil and gas.

While hydrocarbons still account for 32 per cent of GDP and 75 per cent of export earnings, they employ only five per cent of the workforce, leaving the bulk of the population dependent on a narrow economic base that is vulnerable to external shocks.

Against this backdrop, the TT Chamber has tabled a bold suite of budget recommendations.

Framed as a blueprint for transformation rather than a checklist of requests, these proposals call for strategic investment in new engines of growth, institutional reform and public-private collaboration. If adopted, they could mark a decisive pivot towards resilience, diversification and global competitiveness.

The case for diversification

The chamber’s submission underscores a stark reality – the current path is neither sustainable nor inclusive.

While recent upticks in energy prices briefly cushioned fiscal pressures, they cannot mask the country’s structural vulnerabilities.

TT must broaden its economic base, reduce reliance on volatile petroleum revenues and strengthen non-energy sectors such as agriculture, services, tourism and the creative industries.

The chamber’s 2025-2026 recommendations cluster around seven priority pillars:

1. Agriculture and food security

2. Economic diversification (services, creative economy, professional and marine services)

3. Government efficiency

4. Human capital development

5. Health sector reform

6. Public safety and justice

7. Digital transformation

Together, these pillars chart a course toward what the Chamber terms "TT’s next-generation economy" – a model that is more innovative, inclusive and less susceptible to global commodity cycles.

Agriculture and food security: Reducing a $7.3 billion import bill

Agriculture, which today accounts for less than one per cent of GDP, lies at the heart of the chamber’s vision for diversification.

The country’s food import bill reached $7.3 billion in October 2024, making it both a fiscal and food security risk.

The chamber proposes a structured plan to develop priority products (including breadfruit, hot peppers, cassava) over three years, supported by extension services, finance access and

private sector partnerships. This approach is aligned with Caricom's "25 by 2025" initiative, which seeks to cut regional food imports by 25 per cent, now extended to 2030.

Beyond import substitution, agriculture is also seen as an export opportunity. With targeted investment in niche crops such as cocoa and tropical fruits, TT could transform its farms into a source of foreign exchange and rural employment.

Importantly, the chamber stresses the need for climate-resilient systems, subsidies for risk insurance and clear tax incentive frameworks to encourage investment.

Unlocking the Orange Economy and services exports

The chamber highlights the creative industries – music, film, fashion, design and digital media – as a cornerstone of economic diversification.

Already, recent investments in film production generated over $55 million between May 2024- 2025, while music exports brought in $5.3 million.

Fashion designers have exported to over 21 markets locally, regionally and internationally, including countries such as South Korea, Australia and US.

With stronger intellectual property protection, better financing and targeted export promotion (such as film markets and fashion weeks), the creative sector could scale rapidly.

The chamber argues that by treating creativity as "serious business," TT can convert its cultural capital into economic capital, creating high-value jobs for youth while strengthening national identity and global visibility.

Beyond the Orange Economy, the chamber calls for greater support for professional services, ICT, education, marine and yacht services, and niche tourism.

TT’s English-speaking workforce, established financial system and energy expertise position it well to become a Caribbean hub for climate finance, digital consulting and maritime services.

Regional peers such as Curacao have already demonstrated the payoff of such strategies, developing comprehensive service export roadmaps that have attracted foreign students, IT firms and creative industries.

The chamber recommends establishing a National Services Export Initiative co-designed with government, private sector and academia – to double service exports within five years.

Government efficiency and business climate

No diversification agenda can succeed without a more efficient state.

The chamber identifies persistent bottlenecks in customs, VAT refunds, foreign exchange access and regulatory approvals as major impediments to private sector growth.

Key recommendations include:

· A fully digitised, risk-based customs management system with pre-clearance for low-risk containers.

· A VAT refund fast-track mechanism, using automated verification and escrow-based timelines.

· A transparent foreign exchange allocation policy, monthly reports from the Central Bank and a reconsideration of a managed float system to curb black market activity.

· Implementation of a Universal Payment Interface, allowing the unbanked to integrate into the financial system using mobile platforms.

These reforms would ease liquidity pressures, improve trade facilitation and restore business confidence.

Human capital, youth and education

A future-ready economy requires a future-ready workforce.

The chamber advocates for:

· Expanding youth employment tax incentives beyond tech into construction and manufacturing.

· Raising the tertiary education tax deduction from $72,000 to $90,000, in line with rising tuition costs.

· Establishing ideation labs at tertiary institutions to promote entrepreneurship.

· Introducing a National STEM Roadmap and integrating innovation into school curricula from the primary level.

The overarching goal is to ensure TT’s workforce is equipped for the demands of digital transformation, advanced services and innovation-led industries.

Health and public safety

The chamber’s proposals go beyond economics, addressing pressing social concerns.

On health, the recommendations are:

· Diversifying procurement of non-communicable disease (NCD) treatments.

· Introducing a sugar tax to fund healthy lifestyle campaigns.

· Expanding access to cancer screening in vulnerable communities through public-private partnerships.

· Strengthening eHealth capacity and modernising outdated legislation around speciality drugs.

On crime and justice, the chamber recommends targeted tax incentives – allowing 100 per cent deductions (up to $1 million) for corporate contributions to the Police Service and Crime Stoppers.

Such measures would deepen public-private collaboration in strengthening safety and security.

Digital transformation: Start-Up TT

Perhaps the most ambitious set of proposals lies in digital transformation.

The chamber envisions a national e-ID system, updated data protection and cybercrime laws, digitisation of government services and a comprehensive AI policy.

A standout recommendation is the launch of Start-Up TT, modelled after Chile’s globally acclaimed Start-Up Chile programme.

By providing equity-free funding, mentorship and ecosystem support, this accelerator could produce new high-growth companies, attract foreign investment and stem the brain drain of local STEM graduates.

Chile’s experience accelerating 1,200+ startups from 72 countries, raising over US$100 million and creating 1,500 jobs in five years demonstrates the potential payoff.

With the right support, TT could position itself as a regional innovation hub, cultivating a tech ecosystem that diversifies the economy away from oil and gas.

A call to action

In its conclusion, the chamber is clear – TT has reached a critical inflection point.

The familiar hydrocarbon model cannot carry the weight of the nation’s development ambitions.

The 2025–2026 budget is therefore an opportunity not just to balance the books, but to signal a decisive commitment to long-term renewal.

The private sector stands ready to invest, partner and lead.

What is required now is courage from policymakers to embrace bold reforms, clarity of execution and a commitment to building an economy that is resilient, inclusive and globally competitive.

As the chamber notes, the future demands nothing less.