World on the brink

LEO TOLSTOY’S masterpiece War and Peace contains the following memorable passage analysing the many factors that led to the Napoleonic Wars: “All these causes – billions of causes – coincided so as to bring about what happened. And consequently none of them was the exclusive cause of the event, but the event had to take place simply because it had to take place.”

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Gaza war and now, Israel-Iran – with the outbreak of the latter on Black Friday, June 13, a nightmare scenario has come to pass. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s astonishing siege on Tehran has clear aims. But no one may control its consequences.

As if Tolstoy’s fatalism is being proven right, grimly has the world sleepwalked to the brink of a third world war. There have been wilfully mixed indications of American complicity in Israel’s operation from Donald Trump.

This is the context of today’s mid-year budget review.

As he addresses MPs on June 18, Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo will do so amid a sudden surge in oil prices stemming from global developments.

The quantum of the proposed supplementation – $3.1 billion, which is in line with typical increases – arguably reflects bullishness about deficit financing. Instead of mass cuts, government is spending. The finance minister can be expected to give insight into current revenue projections.

And while the international financial order was already being obliterated thanks to Mr Trump’s tariffs, international institutions such as the World Bank, from which this country may yet access US$2 billion in diversification funding, remain relevant to Mr Tancoo’s mandate as this country seeks to insulate itself from global shocks.

That insulation is urgently needed as the Israel-Iran war, and its widening implications, proves.

However, the most immediate local issue arising from the mushrooming conflict involves the possible fate of Trinidad and Tobago nationals who may live, work, study, or vacation in the Middle East. Some might encounter great difficulty in getting back home via the UK, given that country's latest visa requirements.

On June 17, four days after Israel’s actions provoked retaliation from Iran, the Ministry of Foreign and Caricom Affairs issued a statement urging such nationals to exercise vigilance and to register with its database for citizens abroad.

We would go further.

We encourage all citizens beyond our borders to utilise the ministry’s systems and heed its guidance, regardless of their location.

For while there is no reason to panic, it is the entire world that might feel the ripple effects – social, economic, political – of what has been unleashed.

For instance, no one knows what is to become of Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites, including one deep in a mountain at Fordo. We could be now living in the pages of War and Peace.