After oil and gas

THE EDITOR: US President Donald Trump has cancelled our development of the Dragon Field but our energy sector was in decline already. Exploration companies are pulling out.

Downstream industries are shrinking. And no non-energy source of revenue has been developed.
We will not go bankrupt overnight, but gradually our expenses will permanently outstrip our revenue. We will draw upon our stabilisation fund. We will resort to more international loans.

We will increase taxes and rates. We will reduce maintenance on roads and buildings. Foreign exchange will become increasingly difficult to source locally.

Until, one day – perhaps 20 years from now – some future prime minister will sorrowfully address the nation and inform us that we are in a state of economic emergency, that salary cuts and even higher taxes are required.

I lay out this dire scenario because I need my compatriots and leaders to face these challenges head-on. Do we want our only options to be living in a distressed country or migrating abroad?
From reading the newspapers I see no real acceptance that economic change must come. Maybe it’s all a brave front, while smarter people than me work behind the scenes to fix our problems.

But somehow I get the sense that this is just a front because no one knows any future beyond drilling for more oil and gas.

And the irony is we were not supposed to still be an oil and gas country. If you read the economists of the 1990s, the intention was always for oil and gas revenue to fuel the next stage of development, which would ultimately replace oil and gas. Instead, we got stuck focusing on downstream industries and neglecting our non-energy sectors. Remember when Amar used to manufacture cars? Where is that sort of daring today?

Trinidad suffers from a serious lack of confidence. We must get over this rut where we think oil and gas is the only thing we have. We must apply all the considerable mental and physical energy we possess to break free from this resource curse.

We must recognise that we are all in this together. This is not just a government issue. The private sector must realise that it will eventually have to generate the revenue that replaces oil and gas.

What we require is a national plan – a comprehensive one. A plan to incubate new economic sectors with the urgency that comes from knowing our revenue is declining. We need a partnership between government, big business, small business, and labour, where we collectively agree that expanding non-oil export sectors is critical. Both the government and local conglomerates must invest in this country. We must think about exports, not just local retail.

We must approach this with the understanding that we don’t know what the next big thing will be – therefore, we must try many things. Here’s a small example of imaginative thinking: 15 years ago, Peru grew no blueberries. Today, it is the world’s largest exporter. We have to think expansively and beyond our usual limits.

We must also understand that 90 per cent of these ideas will fail. We must be prepared for that, knowing that the success of the ten per cent will benefit everyone. Fear of being part of the 90 per cent shouldn’t prevent us from trying. Trinidadians are natural-born entrepreneurs, but we are easily distracted by our own infighting.

Moreover, we must align ourselves with our neighbours. Right now we have the advantage of infrastructure and skilled personnel but declining resources, while they have new resources but limited infrastructure. We must align our abilities with theirs before someone else steps in. Even if this means humbling ourselves and accepting a less-than-ideal arrangement; less-than-ideal is better than no deal. We cannot let nationalism lock us out.

Our diaspora is, I believe, our greatest untapped resource: people who have left, gone abroad, and acquired new skills, connections, and resources. We must seek out these individuals to assist in our modernisation. And modernisation is required. We have to imagine what a future Trinidad could look like. We need to think beyond building one factory, one hotel, or hosting one event.

We must think bigger – about what our future could look like instead of being stuck fixing the same pothole over and over again.

Why not become an exporter of niche luxury agricultural products? Why not manufacture items beyond downstream energy products? Why not become a service provider for the entire Caribbean? Why not become a source of IT research and development? You may laugh, but the only reason we are not a hub is that we are afraid of looking foolish.

If we don’t act now, in 20 years we won’t just look foolish. We will be destitute.

EMILE ENIGHTOOLA
via e-mail