Era-defining conclave

COLOURED smoke will signal whether a new pontiff has been chosen, but the conclave set to begin in the Vatican on May 7 to pick a successor to Pope Francis will be anything but black and white.

For the first time, the proceedings in the Sistine Chapel will involve more than 120 cardinals – a limit first imposed by Pope Paul VI in 1975. This time around, 133 out of 135 electors will attend. Of them, a whopping 108 were appointed by Francis.

As a result, the conclave is the most cosmopolitan ever; for the first time, Europeans will make up less than half.

Francis was the first non-European pope in modern times. Since his death on April 21, speculative lists of potential replacements have underlined the possibility of an African pope.

Robert Sarah of Guinea, Peter Turkson of Ghana and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo are among the papabili. A Holy Father from Africa would not be entirely unprecedented: history records three popes, Victor I, Miltiades and Gelasius I, of African descent. The possibility of an Asian pope, too, has triggered excitement. Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is among the contenders.

However, no one can easily predict the outcome of this ecclesiastical election. Karol Wojtyla, who later became John Paul II, was a complete shock in 1978; while hardliner Joseph Ratzinger, later Benedict XVI, was a lock in 2005 because of his prominent position in Rome.

And despite all the changes wrought by Francis, the overall composition of the elective body still does not accord with the wider demographics of the church. For instance, 20 per cent of the global Catholic population come from Africa, while just 13 per cent of the conclave are from there.

The last pope sought to address imbalances. But whether his reformist vision will prevail is also not straightforward. All the new cardinals are unknown quantities. Hailing from the global south, many may wish to elect a candidate who shares Francis’s support of migrants, his advocacy for climate change and his belief in the need for global equality. Many also hail from societies perceived as more conservative.

Francis was elected in 2013 – a very different time. Today, the church is deeply fractured. Radical right-wing forces are on the rise.

Donald Trump’s AI-generated meme depicting himself as the next pontiff has drawn condemnation.

Yet, it captures perfectly the changed political and technological environments the new pope will operate in. He will be the leader of 1.4 billion Catholics. But, as shown by the profound geopolitical impact of John Paul II, his reach could be well beyond. When white smoke rises from the chapel’s chimney, it could mark a turn for both the church and the world.