NACTA: Any number can play on April 28

ANY number can play in this election. This was one of the latest findings of an ongoing survey by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) on the April 28 general election, which were released on April 23.

The survey was based on the responses of 1,200 voters representing the demographics of the population.

NACTA said the findings showed close contests in several marginal constituencies in Trinidad. Neither the PNM nor the UNC have been able to cross the 50 per cent support mark to declare any of these constituencies in their columns. NACTA said that made the election result difficult to predict.

There are 41 seats in the House of Representatives and to form the government, a political party must control a minimum of 21 seats.

NACTA said, "Several seats in each camp are toss ups that can go either way, and there could also be a couple of surprises."

The survey, NACTA continued, has the PNM in the lead in some marginals while the UNC is ahead in others.

"In almost all swing seats, the lead is within the poll’s findings of margin of error of four per cent."

NACTA said there was also four per cent of the electorate which are defined as "undecided and or refusing to reveal party choice."

While partisan voters describe votes for small parties as wasted, NACTA said, "Supporters of small parties view it as a way to register one’s disenchantment with the two major parties (PNM and UNC). The support for the small parties could impact the outcome in a few swing seats.

Prime Minister Stuart Young and Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar, NACTA continued, are favoured by different parts of the electorate.

NACTA said Young had galvanized his party's critics to campaign for candidates in marginal seats.

"Voters say the newly minted PNM leader has been charming voters and audiences on the campaign trail and in his TV appearances, mixing and mingling with voters everywhere."

Last week, Young accepted an invitation by the Santan Dharma Maha Sabha (SDMS) to be interviewed on Jaagriti TV.

The SDMS offered the same invitation to Persad-Bissessar but she did not accept it.

NACTA said Young was getting support from young voters, Indo Trinidadians, business people and some swing voters (people who do not vote for either the PNM or UNC).

It added Persad-Bissessar appeared to be at her best sincee 2015 in terms of acceptance, favorability or likeability, popularity, and as a potential prime minister.

"Several former MPs, once critical of her leadership, have returned to campaigning for party candidates in marginals."

Crime and the economy remain the issues which concern voters.

NACTA said the UNC appeared to be preferred by voters to handle both issues better than the PNM.

In terms of popular support, NACTA continued, the PNM has lost ground from 2020 in every constituency except four.

These are Moruga/Tableland, Chaguanas East, Barataria/San Juan and Mayaro.

NACTA said the UNC and its "coalition of interests" had gained support in every constituency except for those four.

Several PNM supporters, NACTA continued, have complained their MPs have lost touch with the party's base.

NACTA said that had contributed to the UNC being able to attract more non-traditional support than it was able to in 2020.

But NACTA added, "This does not necessarily mean that either party (PNM or UNC) will lose seats it holds or make gains from the other as the contests are tight."

In Tobago, NACTA maintained its previous findings that the contest there was mainly between the PNM and the Tobago People's Party (TPP) with the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) being a vote splitter.

The contest in Tobago East is close between the PNM and TPP while the PNM holds a comfortable lead over its rivals in Tobago West.

The PDP is trailing in Tobago East but could lose its deposit in Tobago West.