Former UNC minister predicts PNM election win

FORMER UNC government minister Devant Maharaj has predicted the PNM will win the April 28 general election, 22-19. He made his prediction in a statement issued on April 23.

The PNM won the August 2020 election by that margin.

Maharaj said the PNM's election day machinery, incumbency, and Prime Minister Stuart Young’s cross-racial appeal outweigh UNC’s advertising advantage and social media edge.

While the higher expenditure by the UNC on political advertisements may boost its supporters' morale and sway some swing voters, Maharaj believed that would be trumped by socio-economic concerns and the PNM's organisational strength would prevail.

Maharal said third-party vote-splitting in some constituencies and the weakness of UNC candidates selected in other constituencies could tip the balance in the PNM's favour.

He added he used a Bayesian logistic regression model to guide his prediction.

Maharaj said the model integrated historical data, socio-economic indicators, and sentiment scores.

"AI (artificial intelligence)-driven sentiment analysis achieves 85 per cent accuracy. The model predicts seat outcomes with a ±3.5 per cent margin of error, accounting for turnout (projected 60 per cent).

He said the model put the PNM ahead of the UNC in key marginal constituencies both parties needed to win the election.

From a historical context, Maharaj continued, the PNM has won ten of 14 elections since 1962, securing 22 seats (49.05 per cent) to UNC’s 19 (47.09 per cent) in 2020.

"Racial voting – PNM with Afro-Trinidadians, UNC with Indo-Trinidadians – and the first-past-the-post system favor major parties. Incumbency historically boosts PNM through state resources."

Maharaj said crime, inflation, foreign exchange shortages, infrastructure and healthcare issues drive anti-PNM sentiment, favoring UNC in marginal constituencies.

But he added the PNM’s energy-driven surplus mitigated some of that criticism.

Maharaj said with respect to leadership perception Young has the advantage over Persad-Bissessar who has been criticised for not addressing allegations of corruption as prime minister in the 2010-2015 period.

He added Young was also favoured over his predecessor Dr Keith Rowley who some people accuse of mismanagement.

"Young's appeal aids PNM."

Rowley resigned as prime minister on March 16 and Young was sworn into this post one day later.

Maharaj said other polls being used to predict the election's result were flawed in different ways.

Those include overstating the support for some political parties, ignoring the potential for third parties to split votes and cause upsets and using samples which are too small to get any accurate result.