We beg to differ, Commissioner

After a weekend of murders, with ten homicides recorded between March 15 and 18, Police Commissioner Erla Harewood-Christopher sought to reassure the public on March 21 that: “The police are in control and we are able to control the increase in violent crime.”

It’s an odd assertion with murders for 2024 totalling 124, which may well equal 2023 at the current rate unless there is some drastic change. The detection rate for 2024 is just nine per cent of murders, though detection rates do rise during the year as more cases are pursued. The final detection rate for 2023 was a disappointing 16 per cent.

For murder investigations for 2024, “support,” apparently a term that officers use to describe factors that assist in moving cases forward, was enumerated. Ballistic evidence provided support in one case, eyewitness testimony supported nine, CCTV surveillance supported eight and confessions were recorded in three.

If there is no overlap in these cases, the best efforts by police officers to gather actionable evidence or testimony will have delivered results in just 21 cases out of 124. It’s hard to take police promises to deal with crime seriously, given those numbers.

The public is unlikely to be assured by assertions of “control” that are clearly not deterring criminals. Deputy Commissioner and head of police operations Junior Benjamin believes the commissioner’s violence-reduction plan is one of the best he’s ever seen. Perhaps as a senior police officer, he has seen previous crime plans that were announced to the public. But to the extent that any previous plans have delivered any results worth noting, they might as well have never existed.

Crime numbers have risen steadily since 2000, when there were nine murders per 100,000 citizens, to 2021’s count of 30. Particularly bloody years were recorded in 2008 and 2019 before 2020’s pandemic-influenced decline.

There is little to assure the public in announcing that 117 guns and 1,430 rounds of ammunition have been seized for the year, when, according to the National Security Minister, almost 100 million rounds of ammunition were legally imported into the country between 2016 and 2021. In 2020, gun imports increased 20fold, to 64,553 units.

Changing this gun culture is a long road. Meanwhile, police must demand greater accountability for legal imports and more focused firearms tracking through marking and registering individual weapons. The ready availability of handguns and, increasingly, assault rifles in this country was identified in studies as early as 1999 as igniting a spike in killings and gun-related woundings that’s run out of control.

Roadblocks haven’t helped. Prayer hasn’t helped. Seizing 117 guns for 2024 to date feels a lot like trying to drain a pool with a straw.