Met Office warns of hotter than average 2024 dry season

THE Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) is warning of drier-than-usual conditions in the first half of the 2024 dry season and a hotter-than-average dry season.

The warning came as the TTMS held its annual National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) to inform stakeholders of its predictions for the upcoming months.

TTMS acting climatologist Kaidar Kissoon said the 2024 dry season rainfall outlook indicated “strongly enhanced signals for suppression of rainfall towards drier-than-usual conditions in the first half of the season.”

He said this would be followed by wetter-than-usual conditions for the second half of the season for both islands.

“Below-normal rainfall totals are favoured for January-March while above-normal rainfall totals are favoured for March-May 2024.”

He added, “The majority of the country is likely to get a percentage of average dry season rainfall totals that range between 61 per cent (and) 102 per cent.”

Kissoon said the number of consecutive days without rain predicted for the upcoming dry season falls within the average.

“TT normally receives between three (and) eight seven-day dry spells and between one (and) five ten-day dry spells in the dry season.

“For 2024, there is a 70 per cent probability of between four (and) seven seven-day dry spells and one- three ten-day dry spells.”

He added despite the drier-than-normal conditions in the first half of the dry season, the 2024 dry season will be wetter than expected.

“The outlook indicates relatively moderate to high probabilities of between 31 and 98 per cent across most areas for seasonal rainfall totals to exceed the national dry season average of 412 millimetres.”

Kissoon also warned that temperatures for the first half of next year will likely be above average.

“The outlook indicates above-normal seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are likely.”

He said this will be partly because of a moderately strong El Niño weather pattern, which is expected to persist throughout the first half of the 2024 dry season and become weaker in the second half.

Kissoon warned that the drier-than-usual conditions at the start of 2024 will affect water reserves. He said the conditions will also increase the chances of bushfires, forest fires and landfill fires from January-March 2024.

“This will likely reduce air quality and negatively affect persons with existing respiratory and other ailments.”

Representatives of stakeholders such as the TT Fire Service (TTFS), the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) and the Ministry of Health attended the forum.

WASA’s director of operations Shaira Ali said her organisation is ready for the drier-than-usual conditions and has already taken measures to ramp up water reserves, as she unveiled the company’s 2024 dry-season water-management plan.

It includes constructing and developing new groundwater sources and expanding several others in underserved areas.

This involved commissioning six new wells in Arouca, Freeport and Chatham and rehabilitating seven wells in Freeport, Carapal, Carapo, Queen’s Park Savannah, Matura, Clarke Road and Dorrington.

She said these are expected to increase WASA’s water production by over 1.8 million gallons a day.

Ali said WASA will bring these wells on stream while simultaneously pursuing a water-conservation campaign titled Value Every Drop, in which customers will be encouraged to recognise that “every drop of water counts.”

She said there are little things the public can do to conserve water, such as fixing leaking taps and watering their lawns during early-morning hours to reduce evaporation.