CSO: Trinidad and Tobago economy grew by 3% in first quarter

THE economy of Trinidad and Tobago grew by 1.5 per cent in 2022 year-on-year and by three per cent in the first quarter of this year, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said in a statement on Sunday titled Annual and Quarterly Gross Domestic Product.

This growth was mainly in the non-energy sector – followed by some growth in areas of the energy sector – but with contraction in the agriculture and petrochemical sectors.

"The TT economy grew by 1.5 per cent in 2022 when compared with 2021.

"This was due to a 5.8 per cent expansion in the non-energy sector. The energy sector recorded negligible growth."

The main areas of growth in the non-energy sector were professional, scientific and technical services (47.6 per cent); transport and storage (27.5 per cent); accommodation and food services (19.0 per cent); trade and repairs (6.1 per cent); manufacturing (6.1 per cent); and construction (4.3 per cent).

"These increases were offset by a slowdown in economic activity in agriculture (11.5 per cent), financial and insurance activities (3.1 per cent), and other service activities (1.3 per cent)."

The energy sector was a mixed bag.

"The energy sector recorded increased activity in asphalt (25.6 per cent); refining (including LNG) (11.6 per cent); petroleum support services (7.5 per cent); natural gas exploration and extraction (5.8 per cent); and petroleum and natural gas distribution (3.1 per cent).

"Declines recorded in condensate extraction (16.5 per cent), manufacture of petrochemicals (6.8 per cent) and crude oil exploration and extraction (0.1 per cent) offset the increases recorded in the other energy industries resulting in overall negligible growth in the energy sector."

The TT economy grew by 3.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 when compared with the first quarter 2022.

This is in contrast to a previous 4.0 per cent decline in the first quarter 2023 relative to the fourth quarter 2022.

"The main industries contributing to the 3.0 per cent expansion in the domestic economy in the first quarter of 2023 were mining and quarrying (2.6 per cent); manufacturing (1.6 per cent); trade and repairs (10.9 per cent); transport and storage (16.7 per cent); and accommodation and food services (17.5 per cent).

Pointe-a-Pierre MP David Lee scoffed that the CSO was presenting old data, which he said paled compared to the Central Bank's recent prediction of a $6 billion budget deficit for fiscal 2023, far worse than a $1.5 billion-plus deficit originally predicted by Finance Minister Colm Imbert.

He queried the relevance of the CSO's data, given that the 2024 budget was due within weeks, by his reckoning on a budget day of October 2.

Lee also said Imbert had predicated his last budget on natural gas at US$6 per MMBTU and crude oil at US92.50 per barrel but in fact for most of 2023 these prices had respectively been under US$3 and US$75. Further, he said the Central Bank in a recent economic bulletin had said VAT inflows to the Government had been less than originally predicted.

On the energy sector, he said petrochemicals made in TT were no longer fetching the high prices seen at the start of the Ukraine War, because the world had since adjusted to the fallout from that conflict. "Even oil and natural gas have not been commanding the high prices of 2022.

"Further, natural gas production is at an all-time low."
Lee said Point Lisas companies were not running at full capacity due to curtailment of their gas supply, while the NiQuan gas-to-liquids plant at Pointe-a-Pierre had taken the Government to court because it was not getting an adequate gas supply as agreed.

Newsday was unable to get a formal comment from any Cabinet minister, although one promised to examine the CSO statement for comment this week, while now broadly welcoming its positive aspects.