The Ukraine test

THE MILESTONE of one year passing since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not been accompanied by any commensurate sense of progress when it comes to measures to alleviate that war’s disruptive effects. In fact, the situation remains as tenuous as ever and there is as yet no sight of an endgame.

US president Joe Biden’s dramatic visit to Ukraine’s capital city this week served to emphasise the only certainty in this conflict is that it will remain intractable for some time to come.

Mr Biden’s decision also to visit Poland on the heels of his stop in Kyiv further emphasised what is at stake: Ukraine’s fate could determine the destiny of several other eastern European countries.

The US leader might also warn that the freedom of countries elsewhere is also at stake if neo-colonial and imperialist ambitions are fuelled.

One year has passed and casualties continue to mount, with tens of thousands of lives lost and displaced. Even as food prices have begun to ease internationally, the global food crisis continues to worsen, threatening the stability of vast regions of the world.

Money that should have been devoted to addressing the climate crisis or bolstering food and energy security or addressing regional inequities has been diverted by major economies into the black hole of a military conflict.

Generations will pay the price: it will take more than US$349 billion to rebuild Ukraine, according to an estimate by the World Bank last September. It is likely the figure is now substantially higher.

The comity of nations has shifted irreversibly too.

The recent sparring between the US and China over surveillance balloons as well as reports that China might be preparing to assist Russian aggression in Ukraine underline how the delicate ballet between global superpowers has now been replaced with crude ruction.

There will be profound repercussions.

The notion of the Caricom region as a “zone of peace” is now in peril given the mixed positions taken by regional actors about Russia’s actions and the concomitant possibility of the deployment of military assets that can elevate tension and threaten the peace, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of nation states here.

TT has benefitted from a resurgence of energy prices. But even the most cynical economist who views conflict as a good thing for the local economy will point out that this situation has affected the ordinary man in a manner inimical to any sense of economic progress.

One year later, our cost-of-living situation is tethered to the ongoing developments, and little fruit has been borne from efforts to insulate our economies.

Year two will only continue to test the region’s resolve.