Low detection, loose killers

There is no doubt citizens are deeply worried over the country’s crime, lawlessness and public safety.

Of course, while crime policy and policing could be improved, the political atmosphere, for several reasons, seems to be the biggest barrier. While the high rate of murders and serious crimes is troubling, the dismally low detection rates for these crimes should be much more troubling.

Why? Mainly because by remaining undetected, thousands of criminals are on the loose, repeating their crimes. It’s time to bring the saddening detection rates to light.

To help illustrate, we take a brief look at a very serious example, the escalating murder rate – how it grew and how it can be controlled – and its very low, troubling detection rate.

Overall, while the rate of murder and serious crimes rapidly increased from around 2006, the detection rates for these crimes dramatically decreased. Why, when police commissioners after 2006 were given “complete powers to appoint, manage and discipline officers” and also manage the police service resources?

The growing evidence shows that apart from money, something is seriously wrong with the police service and government’s policy oversight of it.

Be it sexual offences, housebreaking, wounding, robberies, etc, the average detection rates for many years now have remained generally less than 30 per cent, some less than 20 per cent.

It is therefore not helpful to say “serious crimes are down” while the detection rates are so dismal for public safety. The overall situation is that too many undetected, repeat criminals are still on the loose, posing sustained dangers. Yes, a crisis rests with the murder rate, but there is a bigger crisis: the overall very low detection rates.

Our troubling murder rate is heading towards a record 600, passing the 547 of 2008. This is troubling mainly because of the 547 murders that year, the detection rate was only 18 per cent (99 charged). This means that some 15 years ago, at least 448 “killers” remained undetected, on the loose. After all, people don’t get “murdered” by ghosts.

Same thing in 2005, when we had 386 reported murders with only 95 (24 per cent) detected. It again means that 291 “killers” (76 per cent) remain roaming, on the loose.

Is this safe for the country? This roaming group are a special type of “recidivists,” assuming it was just one “killer” per person murdered. Moreover, it may very well be the same undetected people committing murder and serious crimes from year to year. How many are from gangs? Undetected gang members?

A difficult, unanswered question is therefore: how many of these undetected people went on to kill again?

In the darkened world of crime, not being caught is rewarding, so much so that non-detection creates repeat offenders. Low detection rates produce a criminal multiplier effect.

The lowest detection rate ever for murder was in 2019 – eight per cent, with at least 494 “killers” loose. Detection rate was 14 per cent in 2020.

We had 399 reported murders in 2020, with only 73 (18 per cent) detected. This again means that at least 326 “killers” (82 per cent) are still on the loose.

And with the scanning deficiencies at the port, the likely availability of guns makes things worse.

This is not just arithmetic. There are dangerous, criminogenic implications here. Of course, any person accused of murder must be given a fair trial, especially if innocent or framed. But that is a different matter for now.

Between 1990 and 2000, we had a total of 1,181 murders reported to the police, with 755 (64 per cent) detected. So at least 426 (36 per cent) murderers remained loose, undetected, during that period in this small society. Note: The murder rate in 1990 was just 84, with a detection rate of 69 per cent.

What went so wrong afterwards? How were the billions spent?

A scientifically-driven set of questions is therefore required for overall improvement.

Here is a sample for murders:

(1) Why did the murder rate rise significantly from 1,181 (average 107 per year) between 1990 and 2000, with a detection rate of 64 per cent, to a frightening 4,838 murders (average 439 per year) between 2010 and 2020, with an average detection rate of only 16 per cent?

A murder-rate increase of 410 per cent from 1,181 to 4,838, with a detection difference of 48 per cent? Killers went loose.

(2) What were the social, economic and even psychological backgrounds of those who were found guilty of the murders during each period?

(3) What were their motives, method, circumstances and even the opportunity to commit the offence?

(4) What were the country’s demographic, socio-economic and political changes between these two periods that could possibly have contributed to the significant murder rate increase from 1,181 to 4,838?

(5) To what extent are the background of offenders and their environment related?

(6) What were the policing policies and operational changes between the period 1990-2000 and between 2010 and 2020?

(7) What methods did the police use to detect these murders?

(8) What did they lack in not detecting the other murders?

(9) Before 2006, police commissioners complained of having responsibility without the required authority. How come, then, the murder rate rose so significantly after 2006, when police commissioners asked for and got more powers to appoint, manage and discipline police offices?

(10) Why did the murder rate rise so significantly, while police efficiency appeared to decrease so significantly after 2006, when the Constitution was amended to reform the Police Service Commission (PSC) and remove the veto power from the prime minister in appointing a police commissioner?

(11) How efficiently and effectively has the constitutionally-reformed Police Service Commission functioned in improving police management and performance since 2006?

If these questions were to be properly answered empirically, it would give the authorities a helpful grip on the problem.

While money may be helpful, the society is also very short of the social and psychological capital needed to support the police and related public-safety policies.

So many “killers” remain loose.