Manning, Tancoo differ on CSO report

MINISTER in the Ministry of Finance Brian Manning said a recent report by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) of $5.5 billion in GDP growth last year was a welcome sign that showed light at the end of the tunnel for TT after a prolonged period of economic fallout from the covid19 pandemic. However Oropouche West MP Davendranath Tancoo sharply disagreed, alleging a lack of any Government measures to boost the economy.

On Monday, Newsday cited a CSO report from last year's second quarter, Q2, (January-March) to third quarter, Q3 (April-June).

From Q2-Q3, the quarterly price GDP rose by $5.5 billion from $38.9 billion to $44.5 billion, a 14 per cent rise (or 8.9 per cent if adjusted for inflation.)

The rise included a one per cent dip in the energy sector, a 0.1 per cent fall in manufacturing, an 89 per cent rise in construction (due to the installation of the Cassia oil/gas platform) and a 24 per cent rise in trade (including a 42 per cent rise in wholesale trade and a 38 per cent rise in vehicle sales.)

Manning said, "The increase in GDP reflects an overall increase in economic activity. This came from the gradual removal of covid health restrictions and increased prices in the energy and petrochemical sectors." He said the Government had kept the economy on a stable footing during one of the sharpest economic downturns in world history such that TT was now poised for "significant economic growth." Manning concluded, "We are not completely out of turbulent waters yet, but there is light at the end of the tunnel."

Tancoo thought the report to be of limited value, now in Q3 of 2022. "The information is dated. It is a partial snapshot of over one year ago and many things have happened since then."

"My concern remains that while certain sectors may finally be starting to reverse downward trends, this does not translate to real growth potential."

He said if indicators pivot towards pre-covid levels, this was simply a response to the relaxing of Government restrictions.

"Businesses closed for months are now opening back up so trade appears to be increasing.

"However, I see no renewed confidence in the economy manifested in investment in micro, small and medium sized businesses, or new business registration and opening up, and these are the entities which push an economy more than simply the select few mega business magnates.

"So while figures may show economic growth, the more pressing issue - development - and the potential for new revenue streams, diversification, etcetera, remains lagging. Sadly too, there appears to be no Government policy designed to stimulate this substantial sub sector."

Tancoo said the Government's admission of the failure of its 2021 budget policies targeting SMEs and the year-long delay in this admission, had indicated its priority bias.

"More must be done for the productive sectors, especially given the new emergent challenges as a result of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, for example, to stimulate the domestic food production sector.

"The Minister of Finance sat on over $430 million, designated for an agricultural stimulus incentive for one year, while the agricultural sector floundered, and food wholesalers and retailers became increasingly dependent on imports."

He said this also tells of Government's "mismatched policy prescriptions vis-a-vis the needs of the population and the economy."