EU ambassador eyes Ukrainian refugee crisis

EUROPEAN UNION (EU) representative to TT Peter Cavendish said sanctions will hurt Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, but the crisis could create a million refugees.

He was speaking to Newsday on Thursday.

With almost 200,000 troops massed on the border for days, Russia attacked Ukraine on Wednesday, amid reports of explosions plus troop, aircraft and naval movements, after a massive cyber attack. The BBC reported 57 people dead and 160 wounded in Kyiv on Thursday, while 100,000 have fled,

Cavendish cited an EU statement strongly condemning Russia's unprecedented military aggression against Ukraine and resultant deaths.

"By its unprovoked and unjustified military actions, Russia is grossly violating international law and undermining European and global security and stability.

"We call on Russia to immediately cease the hostilities, withdraw its military from Ukraine and fully respect Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. Such use of force and coercion has no place in the 21st century.

"It is President Putin who has chosen to bring war back to Europe."

Saying Kremlin aggression targeted Ukraine plus stability in Europe and international peace, the statement said, "The EU intends to hold President Putin accountable for that."

After if sanctions were effective, Cavendish replied the EU will act partners such as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Australia.

"So these sanctions together will take a heavy toll on the Kremlin's interests and their ability to finance war.

"People should place in context that Russian economic wealth generation each year is about equivalent to (that of) Italy, so in terms of economic generation, it is not as strong a country as it would perhaps be appearing on first impression."

He said the Russian economy relied heavily on oil and gas, with economic partners now blaming it for Wednesday's military aggression.

Asked if the conflict could spill over into former USSR states like Lithuania or former USSR satellite states like Poland, Cavendish said, "These are NATO countries, and the principle of NATO is that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries. Therefore if that was to happen, then clearly we would be in a new paradigm."

He said Russia has extensive overseas interests such as Syria, which needed hefty Russian resources to maintain, and now Ukraine.

"Russia will struggle to maintain its standard of living and to maintain economic progress.

"The sanctions combined with the strains on the Russian economy are going to have very serious long-term consequences for the Russian people.

Asked about democracy in Russia, he lamented that hundreds of people protesting the invasion had been arrested, while Putin would ensure protests were short-lived.

Cavendish said the EU was supporting Ukraine with humanitarian aid, having given €17 billion in grants and loans since Russia's invasion of the Crimea, plus more recently €1.2 billion.

"We will be tested to the full now as we also have to anticipate that we will have a refugee crisis coming into Europe, with hundreds of thousands if not more than a million Ukrainians seeking asylum in EU states. Just as we have seen with the Syria crisis, Europe will have to adjust to this new 'people crisis.'"

He said EU financial aid and sanctions showed the EU acting on a broad front over Ukraine.

Cavendish welcomed Foreign Affairs Minister Dr Amery Browne's statement on Ukraine.

He added, "Just as you have the right of a free press in TT, that is missing in Putin's Russia and we all see the consequences of that now."

UK High Commissioner Harriet Cross condemned the invasion of Ukraine in a brief statement sent to Newsday.

"The UK stands united against Russian aggression with our partners, including Trinidad and Tobago. The UK has worked together with the US and the EU to bring forward a coordinated raft of international sanctions with the ability to scale up in response to further Russian actions and aggression.

"As the British Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) said in Parliament this week, we are doing everything possible to help Ukraine to prepare for another onslaught, training 22,000 soldiers, supplying 2,000 anti-tank missiles, and providing £100 million for economic reform and energy independence, and we will now guarantee up to (US)$500 million of development bank financing.

"As a free, and democratic country Ukraine has the right to determine its own future."